Match Info

Challenge League - Round 13

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Santa Lucia		Melita

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.45	1.95	Watch
	3.34	3.35	1.97
	3.32	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.1	3.3	1.95
	3.45	3.38	1.94
	3.25	3.25	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (3.04)	3.39 ↓ (3.66)	1.95 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
27.4%

Draw
26.5%

Melita
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

24.6%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

23.8%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Melita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melita than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Santa Lucia - Melita Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Borg A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
76', 1 - 1, Vella M. ⚽,
81', 2 - 1, Petkovski F. ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, Allionida Q. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Melita may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Melita is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Melita	2	1	0	1	4:2	2	3
11	Santa Lucia	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
18.01.26	Marsa - Santa Lucia	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Santa Lucia - Żebbuġ Rangers	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Santa Lucia - Balzan	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Santa Lucia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLTW
- Melita FC
Maltese Challenge League
17.01.26	Żebbuġ Rangers - Melita	1:4 ✺
11.01.26	Melita - Marsa	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Melita - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	St. Andrews - Melita	1:0 ✺
10.12.25	Mġarr United - Melita	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLLW

Santa Lucia - Melita: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide