Match Info

Primera C - Round 20

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Mercedes		El Porvenir

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.72	2.82
	2.71	2.56	3.02
	2.7	2.54	3.04	Watch
	2.65	2.40	2.95
	2.63	2.72	2.74
	2.60	2.60	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3.1)	2.59 ↓ (2.85)	2.9 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mercedes
34.1%

Draw
34.8%

El Porvenir
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

31.3%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

30.4%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mercedes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mercedes's performance.

El Porvenir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and El Porvenir might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mercedes than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Porvenir than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that El Porvenir could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

Mercedes - El Porvenir Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Cruz Vera Borda J. ⚽,
82', 2 - 0, Ruiz F. C. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mercedes won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mercedes won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mercedes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Mercedes - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 28.75%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

El Porvenir - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 39.97%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Mercedes
Argentinian Primera C
12.07.26	Mercedes - Victoriano Arenas	1:1 ✺
06.07.26	Centro Español - Mercedes	0:3 ✺
27.06.26	Mercedes - Justo José de Urquiza	5:0 ✺
14.06.26	Lugano - Mercedes	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	Mercedes - Deportivo Paraguayo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWWLT
- Club El Porvenir
Argentinian Primera C
11.07.26	El Porvenir - Club Luján	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	General Lamadrid - El Porvenir	1:1 ✺
27.06.26	El Porvenir - Leones de Rosario	0:0 ✺
13.06.26	El Porvenir - Atlas General Rodríguez	0:1 ✺
07.06.26	Cañuelas - El Porvenir	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
21.03.26	El Porvenir - Mercedes	1:1
27.06.25	Mercedes - El Porvenir	0:0
18.03.25	El Porvenir - Mercedes	2:1
11.09.24	Mercedes - El Porvenir	1:0
10.04.24	El Porvenir - Mercedes	4:0
Argentinian Primera D
06.11.23	El Porvenir - Mercedes	0:0
23.07.23	Mercedes - El Porvenir	1:0

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