Match Info

Primera C - Round 30

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Mercedes		Puerto Nuevo

	1	X	2
	2.40	2.65	2.95
	2.38	2.68	3	Watch
	2.41	2.82	3.13
	2.45	2.74	3.12	Watch
	2.35	2.6	3.05
	2.5	2.86	3.13
	2.38	2.7	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.35)	2.72 ↓ (3)	3.05 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mercedes
37.4%

Draw
33.1%

Puerto Nuevo
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

29.3%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

27.1%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mercedes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Puerto Nuevo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mercedes than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puerto Nuevo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Mercedes - Puerto Nuevo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 1 - 0, Torres R. ⚽,
89', Mercuri L. 🟥,

Preview

In recent outings, Mercedes has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Puerto Nuevo is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Mercedes could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Mercedes has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:5 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mercedes against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Puerto Nuevo - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.21%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Mercedes
Argentinian Primera C
20.09.26	Leandro N. Alem - Mercedes	0:1 ✺
10.09.26	Mercedes - Deportivo Español	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Mercedes - Defensores de Cambaceres	0:3 ✺
30.08.26	Juventud Unida de San Miguel - Mercedes	4:1 ✺
22.08.26	Mercedes - Sacachispas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTLLW
- CA Puerto Nuevo
Argentinian Primera C
20.09.26	Puerto Nuevo - Deportivo Paraguayo	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Central Ballester - Puerto Nuevo	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Puerto Nuevo - Lugano	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Leandro N. Alem - Puerto Nuevo	0:3 ✺
23.08.26	Puerto Nuevo - Defensores de Cambaceres	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
30.05.26	Puerto Nuevo - Mercedes	1:1
24.08.25	Mercedes - Puerto Nuevo	1:1
11.05.25	Puerto Nuevo - Mercedes	1:2
20.10.24	Puerto Nuevo - Mercedes	2:2
21.05.24	Mercedes - Puerto Nuevo	1:0

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