Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 19

Date: 4 February 2025, Tuesday


	Merthyr Town		Basingstoke Town

	1	X	2
	1.58	4	4.2
	1.61	4.2	4.2
	1.7	4.08	4.16
	1.72	4.29	3.99	Watch
	1.29	5.5	6.5
	1.68	4.65	3.46
	1.61	4.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.3)	4.42 ↓ (5.15)	4.39 ↓ (7.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
57.9%

Draw
21%

Basingstoke Town
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.2%

17.7%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76.1%

16.3%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Merthyr Town's form might have worsened.

Basingstoke Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Basingstoke Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+18.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merthyr Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basingstoke Town than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Basingstoke Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Thompson-Brissett J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+1', 1 - 1, Rai K. ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 4.

Merthyr in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Basingstoke has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Merthyr have a series of guest games.

In this match Merthyr is certain favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18:8 (average 2.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:2 (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
01.02.25	Marlow - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Merthyr Town - Taunton Town	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
14.01.25	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:1 ✺
11.01.25	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWTT
- Basingstoke Town
English Southern League South Division
01.02.25	Taunton Town - Basingstoke Town	2:0 ✺
25.01.25	Basingstoke Town - Hanwell Town	3:4 ✺
18.01.25	Poole Town - Basingstoke Town	1:0 ✺
11.01.25	Basingstoke Town - Winchester City	2:0 ✺
04.01.25	Basingstoke Town - Plymouth Parkway	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
06.01.24	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	4:1
03.10.23	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	1:3
19.01.19	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:0
17.11.18	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	0:3
English Southern Premier League
19.12.17	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1
12.09.17	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	2:0
29.11.16	Basingstoke Town - Merthyr Town	3:2

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