Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 27

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday


	Havant & Waterlooville		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.75	3.25
	1.84	3.85	3.35
	1.91	4.02	3.41
	1.83	3.85	3.42
	1.84	3.85	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.32)	3.86 ↑ (3.76)	3.36 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Havant & Waterlooville
49.3%

Draw
23.6%

Merthyr Town
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

24.2%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

24.3%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Havant & Waterlooville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Havant & Waterlooville's performance.

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Havant & Waterlooville than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Havant & Waterlooville that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Havant & Waterlooville - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Livermore A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Havant is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Merthyr is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Merthyr could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Merthyr have a series of home games.

Havant will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Havant won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:6 (average 1.5:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Havant won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Havant & Waterlooville
English Southern League South Division
04.01.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Dorchester Town	1:1 ✺
28.12.24	Plymouth Parkway - Havant & Waterlooville	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Havant & Waterlooville - Gosport Borough	3:1 ✺
21.12.24	Chertsey Town - Havant & Waterlooville	0:4 ✺
14.12.24	Havant & Waterlooville - Taunton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLWWW
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
14.01.25	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:1 ✺
11.01.25	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	0:0 ✺
04.01.25	Tiverton Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Merthyr Town - Gloucester City	2:2 ✺
28.12.24	Merthyr Town - Walton & Hersham	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
09.11.24	Merthyr Town - Havant & Waterlooville	5:1
English FA Cup
16.09.17	Havant & Waterlooville - Merthyr Town	2:1

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