Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 17

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday


	Merthyr Town		Totton

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.43)	3.6 ↓ (3.63)	2.5 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 12.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
39.6%

Draw
24.8%

Totton
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25.1%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

24%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Totton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Totton than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Merthyr Town - Totton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 1 - 0, Rees R. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Oastler J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Merthyr in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Totton is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Totton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4:11 (average 0.8:2.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
11.01.25	Merthyr Town - Dorchester Town	0:0 ✺
04.01.25	Tiverton Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Merthyr Town - Gloucester City	2:2 ✺
28.12.24	Merthyr Town - Walton & Hersham	5:2 ✺
26.12.24	Hungerford Town - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTTWW
- AFC Totton
English Southern League South Division
04.01.25	Walton & Hersham - Totton	3:2 ✺
28.12.24	Totton - Poole Town	2:2 ✺
26.12.24	Winchester City - Totton	1:4 ✺
21.12.24	Totton - Sholing	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Tiverton Town - Totton	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:0
English Southern League South Division
20.04.24	Totton - Merthyr Town	2:0
11.11.23	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:3
English FA Trophy
31.10.23	Totton - Merthyr Town	2:1
English FA Cup
06.10.12	Totton - Merthyr Town	3:2

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