Match Info

National League North - Round 15

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Darlington

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.7	2.8
	2.12	3.7	2.88
	2.55	3.84	2.36	Watch
	2.17	3.82	2.89
	2.06	3.65	2.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.55)	3.74 ↓ (3.84)	2.78 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
42%

Draw
24.7%

Darlington
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

24.2%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

23.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Merthyr Town's performance.

Darlington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Darlington might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Darlington than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Merthyr Town - Darlington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', Barton T. 🟥,
32', 1 - 0, Harris M. ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, Cox C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
69', 2 - 1, Maskell J. ⚽,
81', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 13).

Merthyr has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Darlington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
25.10.25	Chorley - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Merthyr Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town	6:4 ✺
04.10.25	Chester - Merthyr Town	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
27.09.25	Merthyr Town - Hampton & Richmond Borough	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLLTL
- Darlington FC
English National League North
25.10.25	Darlington - Southport	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	Radcliffe - Darlington	3:1 ✺
18.10.25	Leamington - Darlington	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Darlington - AFC Telford United	0:6 ✺
English National League North
04.10.25	Buxton - Darlington	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWLL

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