Match Info

National League North - Round 14

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Victory Park (Chorley)


	Chorley		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.33	6.25
	1.38	4.75	6.5
	1.46	4.65	5.5
	1.52	4.23	5.44	Watch
	1.39	4.55	7.08
	1.58	4	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.52)	4.42 ↑ (4.23)	5.9 ↑ (5.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
63.6%

Draw
20.8%

Merthyr Town
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

21.9%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

15.6%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-20.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chorley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chorley - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', Blakeman A. 🟥,
45+5', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 0 - 2, Rees R. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

Chorley is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Merthyr is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Merthyr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chorley has had a series of away games.

In this match, Chorley is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
21.10.25	Southport - Chorley	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Buxton - Chorley	3:2 ✺
11.10.25	Chorley - Oxford City	3:3 ✺
04.10.25	South Shields - Chorley	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
27.09.25	South Shields - Chorley	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLTLL
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
21.10.25	Merthyr Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town	6:4 ✺
04.10.25	Chester - Merthyr Town	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
27.09.25	Merthyr Town - Hampton & Richmond Borough	0:1 ✺
English National League North
20.09.25	Merthyr Town - Radcliffe	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTLL

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