Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Hampton & Richmond Borough

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.1
	2.02	3.65	3.05
	2.06	3.73	3
	2.12	3.49	3.15	Watch
	2.1	3.55	3.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.3)	3.58 ↑ (3.4)	3.08 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
44.6%

Draw
25.6%

Hampton & Richmond Borough
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.4%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

26.2%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Merthyr Town's performance.

Hampton & Richmond Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Merthyr Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hampton & Richmond Borough than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Merthyr Town - Hampton & Richmond Borough Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
71', 0 - 1, Fasanmade C. ⚽,

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Recent performances by Merthyr have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hampton & Richmond is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hampton & Richmond may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Merthyr could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.05%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
20.09.25	Merthyr Town - Radcliffe	0:5 ✺
06.09.25	Merthyr Town - Worksop Town	2:0 ✺
02.09.25	Macclesfield Town - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	King`s Lynn Town - Merthyr Town	4:0 ✺
25.08.25	Merthyr Town - Scarborough Athletic	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWWLL
- Hampton & Richmond Borough
English National League South
20.09.25	Dover Athletic - Hampton & Richmond Borough	3:3 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Croydon Athletic	4:2 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Chippenham Town - Hampton & Richmond Borough	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Torquay United	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Ebbsfleet United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TWTTW

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