Match Info

National League North - Round 17

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday


	Bedford Town		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.75	2.5
	2.25	3.8	2.62
	2.27	4.12	2.61
	2.02	3.93	3.04	Watch
	2.3	3.93	2.62
	1.95	3.65	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.02)	3.86 ↓ (3.93)	2.73 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bedford Town
42.5%

Draw
23.8%

Merthyr Town
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

23.6%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

22.2%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bedford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bedford Town than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bedford Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-5%)

Bedford Town - Merthyr Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merthyr (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
5', 1 - 1, Phillips J. ⚽,
9', 1 - 2, Rees R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
58', 1 - 3, Spiers W. ⚽,
62', 1 - 4, Twamley L. ⚽,
88', 2 - 4, Marsh T. ⚽,
90+6', 3 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Bedford is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Merthyr's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Bedford has had a series of away games.

Bedford could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bedford Town
English National League North
04.11.25	Kidderminster Harriers - Bedford Town	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Oxford City - Bedford Town	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Chester - Bedford Town	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Bedford Town - Oxford City	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Radcliffe - Bedford Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 LWWWT
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
04.11.25	AFC Telford United - Merthyr Town	2:4 ✺
01.11.25	Merthyr Town - Darlington	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Chorley - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Merthyr Town - Kidderminster Harriers	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Spennymoor Town - Merthyr Town	6:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WWWLL

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