Match Info

National League North - Round 9

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Mounting Systems Stadium (Bridlington)


	Scarborough Athletic		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.60	3.00
	1.98	3.40	3.10
	2.02	3.40	3.05
	2.06	3.76	3.24
	2.06	3.73	3.17	Watch
	2.03	3.65	3.20
	2.08	3.74	3.12
	2.01	3.60	3.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.85)	3.61 ↓ (3.66)	3.12 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Scarborough Athletic
45.2%

Draw
25.4%

Merthyr Town
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

24.8%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

26%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Scarborough Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Scarborough Athletic than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Scarborough Athletic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Scarborough Athletic - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 10).

Scarborough is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Merthyr has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Scarborough could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Scarborough won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Scarborough won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Merthyr Town: 1.43%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13
14	Scarborough	10	3	3	4	15:12	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Scarborough Athletic - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.09%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Scarborough Athletic
English National League North
08.09.26	Macclesfield Town - Scarborough Athletic	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Scarborough Athletic - AFC Telford United	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	King`s Lynn Town - Scarborough Athletic	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	Scarborough Athletic - Southport	5:1 ✺
22.08.26	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLWL
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
08.09.26	Chester - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Merthyr Town - Macclesfield Town	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Buxton - Merthyr Town	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Merthyr Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	South Shields - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
18.04.26	Scarborough Athletic - Merthyr Town	2:1
25.08.25	Merthyr Town - Scarborough Athletic	1:3

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