Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 30

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Plymouth Parkway

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.6	5.25
	1.42	4.7	5.4
	1.43	4.98	5.37
	1.47	4.83	5.66
	1.42	4.5	5.79
	1.42	4.7	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.49)	4.72 ↑ (4.43)	5.48 ↑ (5.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
63.9%

Draw
19.4%

Plymouth Parkway
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

20.6%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

20%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Plymouth Parkway has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Parkway than the current prediction. (+1%)

Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Simpson K. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, White S. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 2 - 1, Simpson K. ⚽,
81', 2 - 2, Wilson K. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 3.

Merthyr is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Plymouth Parkway is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Plymouth Parkway could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Merthyr is the unquestionable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Merthyr to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:5 (average 1.8:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
04.02.25	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Marlow - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	Merthyr Town - Taunton Town	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
14.01.25	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWWWT
- Plymouth Parkway
English Southern League South Division
01.02.25	Plymouth Parkway - Chertsey Town	2:1 ✺
25.01.25	Totton - Plymouth Parkway	4:0 ✺
21.01.25	Plymouth Parkway - Hanwell Town	0:2 ✺
18.01.25	Marlow - Plymouth Parkway	0:2 ✺
14.01.25	Plymouth Parkway - Bracknell Town	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
02.11.24	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	2:4
14.03.24	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	1:3
14.10.23	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:1
07.02.23	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	0:1
20.08.22	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	0:1
English FA Cup
12.09.15	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	0:2

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