Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 3


	Metropolitanos		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.75	2.6	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.55
	2.45	3.6	2.6	Watch
	2.56	3.83	2.61
	2.46	3.83	2.61
	2.4	3.5	2.5	Watch
	2.43	3.66	2.6	Watch
	2.42	3.65	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.74)	3.68 ↑ (3.45)	2.58 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metropolitanos
38.1%

Draw
25.5%

Deportivo Garcilaso
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

26.8%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

27%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metropolitanos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metropolitanos than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.3%	5.9%	8.8%

Metropolitanos - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Metropolitanos will win (votes: 29 - 87.9%). Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 2 - 6.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Metropolitanos: 76.8% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:6

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rojas T. (G) 26. Diaz C. 31. Perez L. 6. Graterol A. 32. Camarillo C. 8. Ruiz E. 7. Garces R. 23. Ochoa J. 19. Paraco C. 9. Bustillo M. 70. Flores Barrios R. D.	25. Vargas M. (G) 22. Canales E. 13. Lojas J. 16. Beltran C. 4. Caicedo L. 21. Perleche E. 19. Cornejo M. 14. Diez C. 10. Chicaiza L. 11. Gentile G. 32. Erustes P.
Substitutes
16. Anton I. 77. De La Hoz K. 14. Fuentes J. 24. Lozada Y. 13. Lucena A. 11. Marchan J. 40. Martinez J. 2. Pabon Delgao S. J. 44. Rodriguez A. 17. Valderrey E. 25. Villete A. (G) 28. Zorrilla E.	27. Bazan J. 36. Cuero M. 31. Gonzales E. 34. Marmanillo M. (G) 15. Molina J. 20. Ramirez D. 2. Salazar A. 30. Simisterra R. 9. Ugarriza A.
Coaches
Morr J.	Redin B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Garces R. 🟨,
17', Cornejo M. 🟨,
27', Diez C. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
37', 0 - 1, Erustes P. ⚽, Chicaiza L. (A),
44', Beltran C. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Flores Barrios R. D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Chicaiza L. ↓, Ugarriza A. ↑,
56', Gentile G. ↓, Cuero M. ↑,
57', Ochoa J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
57', Bustillo M. ↓, Zorrilla E. ↑,
73', Paraco C. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
74', Erustes P. ↓, Gonzales E. ↑,
74', Beltran C. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
75', Lojas J. 🟨,
82', Camarillo C. 🟨,
82', Gonzales E. 🟨,
86', Garces R. ↓, Anton I. ↑,
90+3', Perleche E. 🟨,
90+4', Rodriguez A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Metropolitanos is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Deportivo Garcilaso is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Metropolitanos won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Metropolitanos FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.05.24	Inter de Barinas - Metropolitanos	2:2 ✺
18.05.24	Metropolitanos - Universidad Central	5:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.24	Lanús - Metropolitanos	5:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
11.05.24	Metropolitanos - Deportivo La Guaira	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.24	Cuiabá - Metropolitanos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWLWL
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
25.05.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:3 ✺
19.05.24	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.24	Cuiabá - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
12.05.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.05.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Lanús	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Metropolitanos	3:2

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