Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)


	Metropolitanos		Lanús

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.8	1.65	Watch
	5.5	3.9	1.57
	5	3.75	1.66	Watch
	5.81	3.95	1.61
	5.91	3.94	1.58
	5.8	3.8	1.5	Watch
	5.64	3.92	1.57	Watch
	5.6	3.75	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.6 ↑ (4.97)	3.85 ↑ (3.72)	1.59 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metropolitanos
16.7%

Draw
24.3%

Lanús
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

25.1%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

23.1%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metropolitanos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metropolitanos than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lanús, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Metropolitanos - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: Lanús will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Villete A. (G) 2. Pabon Delgao S. J. 4. Jhon Chancellor 14. Fuentes J. 7. Garces R. 6. Graterol A. 10. Araujo W. (C) 70. Flores Barrios R. D. 9. Bustillo M. 40. Martinez J. 35. Bareiro Munoz F. V.	1. Aguerre A. (G) 35. Aguirre B. 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Luciatti B. 22. Soler J. C. 15. Loaiza R. 5. Pena Biafore F. 23. Dominguez N. 10. Marcelino Moreno 9. Bou W. 18. Diaz L. (C)
Substitutes
5. Cuero Fabian 77. De La Hoz K. 13. Lucena A. 11. Marchan J. 21. Ortiz C. 31. Perez L. 1. Rojas T. (G) 8. Ruiz E. 17. Valderrey E. 30. Villero M. 15. Zalzman D. 28. Zorrilla E.	40. Alvarez F. 8. Boggio L. 24. Caceres J. 32. Carrera R. 12. Claa N. (G) 19. Gonzalez M. 21. Lotti A. 3. Morgantini N. 4. Perez G. 17. Rodriguez A. 27. Torres J. 16. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Morr J.	Zielinski R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Pabon Delgao S. J. ↓, Cuero Fabian ↑,
13', Diaz L. ↓, Lotti A. ↑,
22', Bou W. 🟨,
27', Araujo W. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Bou W. ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, Bou W. ⚽, Luciatti B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Araujo W. ↓, Zalzman D. ↑,
46', Martinez J. ↓, Marchan J. ↑,
53', Bareiro Munoz F. V. 🟨,
63', Garces R. 🟨,
65', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Boggio L. ↑,
75', Garces R. ↓, Ruiz E. ↑,
82', Aguirre B. ↓, Carrera R. ↑,
82', Canale Dominguez J. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
86', Flores Barrios R. D. 🟨,
88', Jhon Chancellor ↓, Zorrilla E. ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Lanús could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lanús is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Metropolitanos won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Metropolitanos won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Metropolitanos FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
19.04.24	Metropolitanos - Angostura	2:0 ✺
15.04.24	Academia Puerto Cabello - Metropolitanos	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Metropolitanos - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
07.04.24	Metropolitanos - Caracas	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Metropolitanos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWLTL
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.04.24	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Lanús - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
07.04.24	Racing - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Cuiabá - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
27.03.24	Lanús - Unión Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
25.05.22	Lanús - Metropolitanos	1:0
07.04.22	Metropolitanos - Lanús	0:0

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