Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 11 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Mendez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV


	Lanús		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	1.22	7	11	Watch
	1.2	6.5	13
	1.2	6.5	13	Watch
	1.2	6.79	16
	1.18	6.79	14.69
	1.14	6.5	15	Watch
	1.2	6.55	12.5	Watch
	1.19	6.2	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.31)	6.6 ↑ (4.95)	13.52 ↑ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
78.8%

Draw
14.2%

Deportivo Garcilaso
6.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

18.7%

10.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

16.2%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lanús's performance.

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-17.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lanús that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Garcilaso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Lanús - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Acosta L. (C) 2. Munoz E. 23. Dominguez N. 6. Luciatti B. 35. Aguirre B. 5. Pena Biafore F. 10. Marcelino Moreno 22. Soler J. C. 9. Bou W. 21. Lotti A. 18. Diaz L.	1. Penny D. (C) 5. Ramos C. 2. Salazar A. 4. Caicedo L. 14. Diez C. 16. Beltran C. 13. Lojas J. 7. Gomez A. 23. Urruti L. 11. Gentile G. 32. Erustes P.
Substitutes
1. Aguerre A. (G) 40. Alvarez F. 8. Boggio L. 24. Caceres J. 13. Canale Dominguez J. 32. Carrera R. 19. Gonzalez M. 15. Loaiza R. 4. Perez G. 17. Rodriguez A. 27. Torres J. 16. Watson F. N.	27. Bazan J. 22. Canales E. 10. Chicaiza L. 19. Cornejo M. 36. Cuero J. 31. Gonzales E. 24. Gordillo A. 20. Ramirez D. 30. Simisterra R. 9. Ugarriza A. 25. Vargas M. (G)
Coaches
Zielinski R.	Redin B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Urruti L. 🟥,
26', 1 - 0, Pena Biafore F. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
45+4', 1 - 1, Erustes P. ⚽, Salazar A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pena Biafore F. ↓, Loaiza R. ↑,
46', Lotti A. ↓, Alvarez F. ↑,
57', Beltran C. ↓, Gonzales E. ↑,
58', Soler J. C. ↓, Carrera R. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Bou W. ⚽,
66', Lojas J. ↓, Ugarriza A. ↑,
68', Gomez A. 🟨,
71', Gentile G. ↓, Cuero J. ↑,
72', Diez C. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
72', Erustes P. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
73', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
81', Munoz E. 🟨,
90+2', Diaz L. ↓, Torres J. ↑,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Lanús could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lanús is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
07.04.24	Racing - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Cuiabá - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
27.03.24	Lanús - Unión Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
20.03.24	Belgrano - Lanús	0:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
15.03.24	Lanús - El Porvenir	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTTWL
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
07.04.24	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Metropolitanos	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
28.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Comerciantes Unidos	1:2 ✺
15.03.24	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:4 ✺
08.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TWLWT

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