Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Metropolitanos

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	9	Watch
	1.33	5	8.75
	1.3	5	10	Watch
	1.33	5	10
	1.34	4.83	9.39
	1.29	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.33	4.95	9	Watch
	1.32	4.9	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.43)	4.93 ↑ (4.48)	9.28 ↑ (6.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
70.8%

Draw
19%

Metropolitanos
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

20.8%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

20.2%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Garcilaso's performance.

Metropolitanos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metropolitanos than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Metropolitanos Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Garcilaso will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Penny D. (C) 2. Salazar A. 13. Lojas J. 4. Caicedo L. 7. Gomez A. 16. Beltran C. 14. Diez C. 27. Bazan J. 10. Chicaiza L. 11. Gentile G. 32. Erustes P.	25. Villete A. (G) 5. Cuero Fabian 77. De La Hoz K. 14. Fuentes J. 17. Valderrey E. 10. Araujo W. 15. Zalzman D. 11. Marchan J. 70. Flores Barrios R. D. 35. Bareiro Munoz F. V. 21. Ortiz C. (C)
Substitutes
22. Canales E. 19. Cornejo M. 6. Cuero J. 31. Gonzales E. 24. Gordillo A. 34. Marmanillo M. (G) 21. Perleche E. 5. Ramos C. 30. Simisterra R. 9. Ugarriza A. 23. Urruti L. 25. Vargas M. (G)	9. Bustillo M. 7. Garces R. 24. Lozada Y. 13. Lucena A. 40. Martinez J. 23. Ochoa J. 2. Pabon Delgao S. J. 31. Perez L. 1. Rojas T. (G) 8. Ruiz E. 30. Villero M. 28. Zorrilla E.
Coaches
Redin B.	Morr J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Ortiz C. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Gentile G. ⚽, Salazar A. (A),
37', 1 - 2, Ortiz C. ⚽, Flores Barrios R. D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gomez A. ↓, Ugarriza A. ↑,
46', Chicaiza L. ↓, Urruti L. ↑,
56', Marchan J. 🟨,
58', Villete A. 🟨,
59', Marchan J. ↓, Garces R. ↑,
59', Ortiz C. ↓, Zorrilla E. ↑,
63', 2 - 2, Erustes P. (Pen),
65', Valderrey E. ↓, Villero M. ↑,
68', Bazan J. ↓, Gordillo A. ↑,
78', Villero M. 🟨,
78', Beltran C. ↓, Cornejo M. ↑,
79', Diez C. ↓, Gonzales E. ↑,
89', Araujo W. ↓, Ruiz E. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Gordillo A. ⚽,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Deportivo Garcilaso could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Deportivo Garcilaso is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
28.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Comerciantes Unidos	1:2 ✺
15.03.24	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:4 ✺
08.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - ADT Tarma	1:0 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
29.02.24	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWTWL
- Metropolitanos FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
28.03.24	Deportivo Táchira - Metropolitanos	2:0 ✺
23.03.24	Metropolitanos - Rayo Zuliano	1:0 ✺
19.03.24	Portuguesa Acarígua - Metropolitanos	3:1 ✺
16.03.24	Metropolitanos - Estudiantes de Mérida	1:1 ✺
10.03.24	Deportivo La Guaira - Metropolitanos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLTW

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