Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2024, Wednesday

Location: MCH Arena (Herning)

Referee: Minakovic N. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Bulgaria	Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	RTL, RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Iceland	Viaplay
Malta	TSN Malta 5
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 6
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 6
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7, Movistar Liga de Campeones 7, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Blue Zoom, RTL, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Midtjylland		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.9	2.8
	2.25	3.8	2.85
	2.28	3.95	2.82
	2.29	3.9	2.96
	2.26	3.82	2.9	Watch
	2.25	3.8	2.9
	2.31	4	2.88
	2.27	3.95	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.51)	3.89 ↑ (3.73)	2.86 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Midtjylland
42.1%

Draw
24.6%

Hoffenheim
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

25.6%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

26.4%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Midtjylland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Midtjylland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	17.5%	20%

Midtjylland - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Midtjylland will win (votes: 25 - 64.1%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 8 - 20.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Midtjylland: 49% – 79.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Olafsson E. R. (G) 43. Mbabu K. 4. Diao O. 22. Bech Sorensen M. (C) 6. Andersson J. 11. Osorio D. 5. Martinez E. 21. Castillo D. 58. Simsir A. 14. Chilufya E. 7. Franculino	1. Baumann O. (C) 25. Akpoguma K. 11. Grillitsch F. 34. Nsoki S. 15. Gendrey V. 17. Tohumcu U. 7. Bischof T. 21. Bulter M. 29. Bruun Larsen J. 26. Tabakovic H. 23. Hlozek A.
Substitutes
17. Askildsen K. 55. Bak V. 19. Bravo P. 20. Byskov V. 25. Kuchta J. 3. Lee Han-Beom 53. Lind V. 1. Lossl J. (G) 31. Selin L. (G)	35. Arthur Chaves 10. Berisha M. 4. Drexler T. 3. Kaderabek P. 28. Micheler F. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 18. Samassekou D.
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Osorio D. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Osorio D. ⚽, Andersson J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
60', Tabakovic H. ↓, Berisha M. ↑,
63', Franculino ↓, Kuchta J. ↑,
66', Gendrey V. ↓, Kaderabek P. ↑,
73', Nsoki S. ↓, Drexler T. ↑,
73', Bulter M. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
74', Castillo D. ↓, Bravo P. ↑,
74', Osorio D. ↓, Byskov V. ↑,
77', Andersson J. ↓, Bak V. ↑,
77', Simsir A. ↓, Askildsen K. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Moerstedt M. ⚽, Kaderabek P. (A),

Preview

Midtjylland is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Hoffenheim is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Midtjylland could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Midtjylland have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Midtjylland: Cho Gue-Sung (Knee Injury) Marrony (Knee Injury) Olsson K. (Health problems) Paulinho (Surgery) Sorensen C. (Collarbone injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Injury) Becker F. O. (Knee Injury) Geiger D. (Hip Injury) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Promel G. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Grillitsch F. (Illness) Jurasek D. (Broken Hand)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
22.09.24	Randers FC - Midtjylland	2:2 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
17.09.24	Hillerød - Midtjylland	1:4 ✺
Danish Superliga
14.09.24	Midtjylland - Copenhagen	2:1 ✺
01.09.24	Silkeborg IF - Midtjylland	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.08.24	Slovan Bratislava - Midtjylland	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWWWL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
21.09.24	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:1 ✺
14.09.24	Hoffenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:4 ✺
31.08.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hoffenheim	3:1 ✺
24.08.24	Hoffenheim - Holstein Kiel	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.24	Würzburger Kickers - Hoffenheim	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWW

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