Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Gomez P. M. (Chi)


	Millonarios		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.6	6.5	Watch
	1.55	3.9	6
	1.6	3.75	5.75
	1.56	3.87	6.7
	1.53	3.5	6
	1.55	3.95	6.15	Watch
	1.54	3.8	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.96)	3.77 ↑ (3.38)	6.13 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
60%

Draw
24.8%

Defensa y Justicia
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

27.4%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

26.8%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Millonarios's performance.

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensa y Justicia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Millonarios that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensa y Justicia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Millonarios - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: Millonarios will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Millonarios is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Defensa y Justicia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Millonarios could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Millonarios is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
01.04.23	Atlético Bucaramanga - Millonarios	0:2 ✺
29.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
26.03.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
22.03.23	Millonarios - Deportivo Pasto	2:0 ✺
19.03.23	Millonarios - Rionegro Águilas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTWWT
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.03.23	Defensa y Justicia - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Platense - Defensa y Justicia	1:0 ✺
11.03.23	Defensa y Justicia - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
06.03.23	Boca Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	0:0 ✺
26.02.23	Defensa y Justicia - Atlético Tucumán	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TLTTW

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