Match Info

League Two - Round 16

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Milton Keynes Dons		Salford City

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.7	2.95
	2.08	3.55	3.2
	2.15	3.61	3.29
	2.23	3.72	2.78	Watch
	2.24	3.42	2.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.23)	3.6 ↓ (3.72)	3.04 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
43.4%

Draw
25.9%

Salford City
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

25%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

24.3%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Salford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salford City than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	16.7%	25%

Milton Keynes Dons - Salford City Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Salford will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 2 - 50%). Salford (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Salford (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 2 - 40%). Salford (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 15. Offord L. 21. Ekpiteta M. 32. Sanders J. 16. Nemane A. 6. Kelly L. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 14. Tomlinson J. 29. Hepburn-Murphy R. 13. Paterson C. 11. Mendez-Laing N.	1. Young M. (G) 6. Turton O. 22. Oluwo A. 29. Garbutt L. (C) 15. Cooper B. 21. Cesay K. 18. Butcher M. 17. Austerfield J. 14. Harris K. 23. Udoh D. 10. N'Mai K.
Substitutes
18. Collar W. 7. Crowley D. 17. Leko J. 23. Maguire L. 22. Mellish J. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 27. Trueman C. (G)	34. Butt R. 32. Curran-Nichols J. 8. Grant J. 33. Howard M. (G) 45. Longelo-Mbule R. 27. Siri N. 9. Stockton C.
Coaches
Warne P.	Robinson K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', Hepburn-Murphy R. ↓, Collar W. ↑,
45+2', 1 - 0, Mendez-Laing N. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,
66', Austerfield J. ↓, Stockton C. ↑,
66', Cooper B. ↓, Grant J. ↑,
70', Sanders J. 🟨,
71', 🟨,
77', Tomlinson J. ↓, Mellish J. ↑,
77', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
80', Cesay K. ↓, Longelo-Mbule R. ↑,
90+1', Turton O. ↓, Siri N. ↑,
90+2', Paterson C. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Gilbey A. (A),
90+5', Oluwo A. 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

MK Dons has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Salford is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Salford has had a series of home games.

MK Dons is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in MK Dons: Jones G. (Hamstring Injury) MacGillivray C. (Injury) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Salford: Ashley O. (Inactive) Bird J. (Inactive) Chesters D. (Knee Injury) Rose M. (Leg Injury) Siri N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Collins A. (Hamstring Injury) Hogan S. (Inactive) Lemonheigh-Evans C. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.64%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Salford City - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.4%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Barnet - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	2:3 ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Bromley - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTWLW
- Salford City
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Salford City - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	4:2 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Salford City - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Salford City - Lincoln City	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Gillingham - Salford City	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Salford City - Oldham Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
04.01.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Salford City	0:1
02.09.24	Salford City - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
09.03.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Salford City	3:1
25.11.23	Salford City - Milton Keynes Dons	2:4

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