Match Info

League Two - Round 13

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.7
	2	3.51	4.08
	1.05	10.69	25.00	Watch
	1.9	3.26	4.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.2)	4.83 ↑ (3.46)	8.24 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
63.6%

Draw
23%

Crewe Alexandra
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.2%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

26.9%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milton Keynes Dons's performance.

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crewe Alexandra might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-20.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crewe Alexandra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Crewe will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 15. Offord L. 21. Ekpiteta M. 32. Sanders J. 22. Mellish J. 18. Collar W. 6. Kelly L. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 16. Nemane A. 13. Paterson C. 11. Mendez-Laing N.	1. Booth T. (G) 2. Billington L. 18. Connolly J. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 3. Hutchinson R. 19. Lunt O. 8. Thomas C. 6. Sanders M. H. 7. Lankester J. 26. O'Reilly T. 36. Tezgel E.
Substitutes
7. Crowley D. 29. Hepburn-Murphy R. 17. Leko J. 4. Thompson N. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 14. Tomlinson J. 27. Trueman C. (G)	20. Agius C. 14. Finney C. 16. Golding J. 17. Holicek M. 31. Moult L. 15. Rankine D. 13. Waller S. (G)
Coaches
Warne P.	Bell L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Collar W. ⚽, Ekpiteta M. (A),
26', Nemane A. 🟨,
36', Offord L. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Gilbey A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lunt O. ↓, Moult L. ↑,
50', Paterson C. 🟨,
52', Collar W. 🟨,
57', 3 - 0, Gilbey A. ⚽, Nemane A. (A),
63', Nemane A. ↓, Tomlinson J. ↑,
67', Lankester J. ↓, Agius C. ↑,
67', Thomas C. ↓, Holicek M. ↑,
76', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
76', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
77', Sanders J. ↓, Thompson N. ↑,
81', Hutchinson R. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
86', Gilbey A. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Crewe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, MK Dons is considered a favorite.

There will not play in MK Dons: Collins A. (Hamstring Injury) Jones G. (Hamstring Injury) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Crewe: Tabiner J. (Knee Injury) Tracey S. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Tomlinson J. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Crewe: Bogle O. (Inactive) Holicek M. (Inactive) Powell J. (Groin Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:17. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.78%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
11.10.25	Bristol Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Reading - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
English League Two
04.10.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWL
- Crewe Alexandra
English EFL Trophy
14.10.25	Crewe Alexandra - Liverpool U21	2:0 ✺
English League Two
11.10.25	Crewe Alexandra - Bromley	0:1 ✺
06.10.25	Harrogate Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Crewe Alexandra - Notts County	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Barrow - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
21.04.25	Crewe Alexandra - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1
29.12.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
16.03.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra	3:1
02.09.23	Crewe Alexandra - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1
English League One
05.04.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra	2:1
30.10.21	Crewe Alexandra - Milton Keynes Dons	1:4
05.04.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra	0:2

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