Match Info

League Two - Round 22

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Atkinson B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Milton Keynes Dons		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.1
	1.88	3.45	3.95
	1.88	3.43	4.07	Watch
	1.91	3.25	4
	1.89	3.38	4.08	Watch
	1.88	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.98)	3.4 ↓ (3.65)	4.03 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
49.6%

Draw
27.3%

Swindon Town
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

25.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

26.2%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	25%	16.7%

Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Swindon will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 2. Jones G. 21. Ekpiteta M. 15. Offord L. 16. Nemane A. 18. Collar W. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 6. Kelly L. 32. Sanders J. 10. Collins A. 13. Paterson C.	1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. (C) 22. Knight-Lebel J. 17. Tafazolli R. 33. McGregor J. 7. Nichols T. 44. Oldaker D. 18. Kilkenny G. 26. Munroe F. 9. Glatzel P. 31. Bodin B.
Substitutes
7. Crowley D. 29. Hepburn-Murphy R. 17. Leko J. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 22. Mellish J. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 27. Trueman C. (G)	6. Ball J. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 3. Mabete F. 28. Palmer O. 19. Snowdon J. 11. Tabor J. 12. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Warne P.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Nemane A. ⚽, Gilbey A. (A),
21', Munroe F. 🟨,
38', Collar W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Oldaker D. 🟨,
59', Munroe F. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
60', McGregor J. ↓, Snowdon J. ↑,
63', Collar W. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,
63', Nemane A. ↓, Mellish J. ↑,
70', Collins A. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
72', Bodin B. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
72', Tafazolli R. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
88', Oldaker D. ↓, Tabor J. ↑,
89', Jones G. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Recently, Swindon has had a series of home games.

MK Dons will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in MK Dons: Mendez-Laing N. (Inactive) Sanders J. (Inactive) Tomlinson J. (Inactive) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Injury)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Hogan S. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Swindon: Delaney R. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:20. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 2.3:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 46.83%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Swindon Town - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 27.76%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
20.12.25	Harrogate Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4 ✺
13.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
09.12.25	Notts County - Milton Keynes Dons	3:2 ✺
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	3:1 ✺
English League Two
29.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLWW
- Swindon Town
English League Two
20.12.25	Swindon Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town	0:3 ✺
09.12.25	Swindon Town - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Swindon Town - Bolton Wanderers	4:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Swindon Town - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4
English League Two
03.05.25	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:0
09.11.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	3:1
17.02.24	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2
28.10.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	3:2
English League One
24.04.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	5:0
29.12.20	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:4

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