Match Info

MLS

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Allianz Field (Saint Paul, MN)

Referee: De Oliveira M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	Amazon Prime Video
China	QQ Sports
Italy	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Minnesota United		Chicago Fire

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.7	3	Watch
	1.9	3.9	3.4
	2.22	3.7	2.98
	2.29	3.88	3.02
	2.50	3.57	2.60	Watch
	2.19	3.79	3.12	Watch
	1.85	3.7	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.88)	3.75 ↓ (3.83)	3.15 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minnesota United
44.1%

Draw
25.5%

Chicago Fire
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

24.6%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

26.8%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minnesota United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Minnesota United's form might have worsened.

Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chicago Fire's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Minnesota United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chicago Fire, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Minnesota United - Chicago Fire Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Minnesota will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Chicago will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Minnesota: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Minnesota United will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. St.Clair D. (G) 24. Gressel J. 25. Triantis N. 23. Duggan M. 5. Romero N. 13. Markanich A. 7. Fitz D. 30. Gene O. 20. Trapp W. 98. Randell A. 29. Dieng M.	1. Brady C. (G) 16. Waterman J. 3. Elliott J. (C) 5. Rogers S. 19. Bamba J. 10. Franco A. 42. D'Avilla D. 11. Zinckernagel P. 24. Dean J. 9. Cuypers H. 15. Gutman A.
Substitutes
15. Boxall M. 28. Diaz J. 21. Hlongwane B. 17. Lod R. 90. Mesanvi L. 26. Pereyra J. 8. Rosales J. 1. Smir A. (G) 27. Taylor D.	23. Acosta K. 12. Barlow T. 2. Barroso L. 25. Gal J. (G) 34. Gonzalez O. 17. Gutierrez B. 7. Haile-Selassie M. 6. Kouame R. 35. Oregel S.
Coaches
Ramsay E.	Berhalter G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Waterman J. ⚽,
40', Trapp W. 🟨,
41', 0 - 2, D'Avilla D. ⚽, Franco A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Randell A. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
56', Gene O. ↓, Boxall M. ↑,
56', Fitz D. ↓, Hlongwane B. ↑,
56', Trapp W. ↓, Lod R. ↑,
59', Duggan M. 🟨,
70', 0 - 3, Zinckernagel P. ⚽, Gutman A. (A), Bamba J. (A2)
72', Markanich A. ↓, Rosales J. ↑,
79', Bamba J. ↓, Haile-Selassie M. ↑,
79', Zinckernagel P. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
86', Cuypers H. (Pen),
87', Romero N. 🟨,
87', Elliott J. 🟨,
90+3', Franco A. ↓, Kouame R. ↑,
90+3', Dean J. ↓, Barroso L. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Minnesota is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 2.

Minnesota is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chicago has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Minnesota may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chicago has had a series of home games.

Minnesota could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Minnesota: Dotson H. (Knee Injury) Jung Ho-yeon (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Chicago: Barroso L. (Lower-Body Injury) Mueller C. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Chicago: Kouame R. (Lower-Body Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Minnesota won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 2.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minnesota United
US Open Cup
17.09.25	Minnesota United - Austin FC	1:2 ET ✺
MLS
13.09.25	San Diego - Minnesota United	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Minnesota United - Portland Timbers	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Real Salt Lake - Minnesota United	1:3 ✺
16.08.25	Minnesota United - Seattle Sounders	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWTWW
- Chicago Fire
MLS
13.09.25	Chicago Fire - New York City	1:3 ✺
06.09.25	Chicago Fire - New England Revolution	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Chicago Fire - St. Louis City	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Chicago Fire - Los Angeles	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

US Open Cup
08.07.25	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	3:1 ET
CONCACAF League Cup
27.07.23	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	2:3
MLS
08.04.23	Chicago Fire - Minnesota United	2:1
23.04.22	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	3:0
04.11.20	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	2:2
11.05.19	Chicago Fire - Minnesota United	2:0
17.03.18	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	2:1

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