Match Info

MLS

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Allianz Field (Saint Paul, MN)

Referee: Pekmic I. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Minnesota United		San Jose Earthquakes

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.9	3.5	Watch
	1.95	3.8	3.4
	1.95	3.95	3.45	Watch
	1.99	3.98	3.62
				Watch
	1.95	3.8	3.3
	1.96	4	3.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.82)	3.91 ↓ (4.13)	3.47 ↓ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Minnesota United
48.4%

Draw
24.3%

San Jose Earthquakes
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

23.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

22.9%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Minnesota United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

San Jose Earthquakes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	20%	6.7%

Minnesota United - San Jose Earthquakes Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Minnesota will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). San Jose will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Minnesota: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Minnesota (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - San Jose (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Minnesota (votes: 4 - 57.1%). San Jose (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
97. St.Clair D. (G) 24. Gressel J. 28. Diaz J. 15. Boxall M. 5. Romero N. 13. Markanich A. 26. Pereyra J. 20. Trapp W. 17. Lod R. 14. Oluwaseyi T. 9. Yeboah K.	42. Daniel (G) 26. Rodrigues 12. Romney D. 5. Munie D. 28. Kikanovic B. 34. Leroux B. 6. Harkes I. 94. Vitor Costa 11. Bouda O. 17. Martinez J. 9. Arango C.
Substitutes
23. Duggan M. 30. Gene O. 67. Harvey C. 21. Hlongwane B. 98. Randell A. 8. Rosales J. 19. Shashoua S. 1. Smir A. (G) 27. Taylor D.	36. Edwards E. (G) 20. Fernandez N. 25. Floriani M. 19. Judd P. 24. Lima N. 2. Ricketts J. 18. Roberts R. 30. Tsakiris N. 4. Wilson Valdez B. R.
Coaches
Ramsay E.	Arena B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Oluwaseyi T. ⚽, Lod R. (A), Pereyra J. (A2)
9', Harkes I. 🟨,
30', Kikanovic B. ↓, Lima N. ↑,
38', Rodrigues 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Yeboah K. ⚽, Oluwaseyi T. (A),
45+5', 3 - 0, Markanich A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Romney D. ↓, Roberts R. ↑,
62', Diaz J. ↓, Harvey C. ↑,
62', Markanich A. ↓, Rosales J. ↑,
64', Roberts R. 🟨,
65', Munie D. 🟨,
68', Munie D. ↓, Wilson Valdez B. R. ↑,
68', Bouda O. ↓, Tsakiris N. ↑,
68', Vitor Costa ↓, Judd P. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Wilson Valdez B. R. ⚽, Judd P. (A),
77', Gressel J. ↓, Hlongwane B. ↑,
84', Arango C. 🟨,
85', Pereyra J. ↓, Duggan M. ↑,
90+5', 4 - 1, Rosales J. ⚽, Oluwaseyi T. (A), Yeboah K. (A2)
90+5', Yeboah K. ↓, Randell A. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 3.

Minnesota is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

San Jose's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

San Jose may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Minnesota might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Minnesota: Dotson H. (Knee Injury) Keller K. (Thigh Injury) Speel W. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in San Jose: Buck N. (Knee Injury) Jones D. (Red Card) Tsakiris N. (Lower-Body Injury) Wilson Valdez B. R. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in San Jose: Espinoza C. (Injury) Ricketts J. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Minnesota won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Minnesota won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Minnesota United
US Open Cup
08.07.25	Minnesota United - Chicago Fire	3:1 ET ✺
Club Friendly
07.07.25	Minnesota United - Holstein Kiel	0:0 ✺
MLS
04.07.25	FC Dallas - Minnesota United	1:2 ✺
28.06.25	New York Red Bulls - Minnesota United	2:2 ✺
25.06.25	Minnesota United - Houston Dynamo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WTWTW
- San Jose Earthquakes
US Open Cup
08.07.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Austin FC	2:3 penalties ✺
MLS
05.07.25	San Jose Earthquakes - New York Red Bulls	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:1 ✺
25.06.25	FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes	2:4 ✺
13.06.25	Portland Timbers - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
08.03.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Minnesota United	0:1
31.08.24	San Jose Earthquakes - Minnesota United	1:2
20.07.24	Minnesota United - San Jose Earthquakes	2:0
30.09.23	Minnesota United - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1
02.09.23	San Jose Earthquakes - Minnesota United	1:1
01.10.22	San Jose Earthquakes - Minnesota United	2:0
19.03.22	Minnesota United - San Jose Earthquakes	1:0

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