Match Info

MLS

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: PayPal Park (San Jose, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	San Jose Earthquakes		New York Red Bulls

	1	X	2
	1.91	4	3.6	Watch
	1.9	3.9	3.4
	1.9	4.1	3.55	Watch
	1.94	4.2	3.69
				Watch
	1.95	3.9	3.4
	1.93	4.05	3.61	Watch
	2.08	3.7	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.03)	3.98 ↑ (3.91)	3.5 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Jose Earthquakes
48.9%

Draw
23.9%

New York Red Bulls
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

24.5%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

24.1%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Jose Earthquakes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

New York Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for New York Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	31.2%	0%

San Jose Earthquakes - New York Red Bulls Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. San Jose will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Jose: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. San Jose (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Daniel (G) 26. Rodrigues 12. Romney D. 5. Munie D. (C) 22. Jones D. 34. Leroux B. 6. Harkes I. 94. Vitor Costa 10. Espinoza C. 17. Martinez J. 9. Arango C.	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 6. Duncan K. 15. Nealis S. 3. Eile N. 5. Valencia O. 75. Edelman D. 8. Stroud P. 37. Sofo M. 19. Carmona W. 10. Forsberg E. (C) 81. Ngoma S.
Substitutes
11. Bouda O. 36. Edwards E. (G) 25. Floriani M. 19. Judd P. 14. Kaye M. 28. Kikanovic B. 7. Pellegrino A. 2. Ricketts J. 18. Roberts R.	7. Bogacz W. 13. Choupo-Moting E. M. 48. Donkor R. 44. Edwards R. 22. Gjengaar D. 42. Hack A. 16. Hall J. 1. Marcucci A. (G) 12. Nealis D.
Coaches
Arena B.	Bulut V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Forsberg E. ⚽, Stroud P. (A), Duncan K. (A2)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Jones D. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Vitor Costa ⚽,
59', Ngoma S. ↓, Choupo-Moting E. M. ↑,
59', Duncan K. ↓, Hack A. ↑,
60', Edelman D. 🟨,
64', Jones D. 🟨,
77', Martinez J. ↓, Judd P. ↑,
77', Harkes I. ↓, Kikanovic B. ↑,
77', Vitor Costa ↓, Bouda O. ↑,
80', Carmona W. ↓, Hall J. ↑,
80', Edelman D. ↓, Donkor R. ↑,
86', Leroux B. ↓, Kaye M. ↑,
87', Edwards R. 🟥,
90', Forsberg E. ↓, Bogacz W. ↑,
90+2', Donkor R. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Jose won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, San Jose has had a series of away games.

San Jose will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in San Jose: Buck N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in NY Red Bulls: Harper C. (Injury) Morgan L. (Muscle Injury) Nealis D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in San Jose: Lopez H. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in NY Red Bulls: Edelman D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, San Jose won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, San Jose won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
28.06.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Los Angeles Galaxy	1:1 ✺
25.06.25	FC Dallas - San Jose Earthquakes	2:4 ✺
13.06.25	Portland Timbers - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	St. Louis City - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1 ✺
28.05.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - San Jose Earthquakes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 TWTLW
- New York Red Bulls
MLS
28.06.25	New York Red Bulls - Minnesota United	2:2 ✺
25.06.25	Toronto FC - New York Red Bulls	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Austin FC - New York Red Bulls	2:1 ✺
31.05.25	New York Red Bulls - Atlanta United	2:0 ✺
28.05.25	New York Red Bulls - Charlotte	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
08.04.23	New York Red Bulls - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1
26.02.22	San Jose Earthquakes - New York Red Bulls	1:3
16.03.19	New York Red Bulls - San Jose Earthquakes	4:1
06.10.18	San Jose Earthquakes - New York Red Bulls	1:3
19.07.17	New York Red Bulls - San Jose Earthquakes	5:1
13.04.16	San Jose Earthquakes - New York Red Bulls	2:0
17.04.15	New York Red Bulls - San Jose Earthquakes	2:0

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