Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, TyC Sports Play
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Israel	Sport 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Spain	Movistar Plus+
World	Onefootball


	Palmeiras		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.95
	1.68	3.96	5.42
	1.65	4.05	5.18	Watch
	1.65	3.6	4.8
	1.66	3.84	5.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.44)	3.82 ↓ (4.12)	5.3 ↓ (6.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
57.3%

Draw
24.8%

Mirassol
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

22.3%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

20.7%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palmeiras's form might have worsened.

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palmeiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Palmeiras - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Mirassol will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 3. Bruno Fuchs 56. Arthur Gabriel 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 40. Allan Elias 18. Mauricio 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J.	22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo (C) 25. Neto Moura 21. Jose Aldo 96. Carlos Eduardo 7. Shaylon 11. Negueba 99. Andre Luis
Substitutes
24. Aranha (G) 7. Felipe Anderson 6. Jefte 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 22. Piquerez J. 19. Sosa R.	77. Alesson 23. Alex Muralha (G) 20. Daniel Borges 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 18. Gabriel Pires 27. Galeano A. 2. Lucas Oliveira 9. Nathan Fogaca 29. Tiquinho Soares 12. Victor Luis 5. Yuri Lara
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Baitello I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Neto Moura 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Mauricio (A),
29', Reinaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
46', Reinaldo ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
46', Neto Moura ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
58', Andreas Pereira ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
67', Carlos Miguel 🟨,
70', Arthur Gabriel ↓, Piquerez J. ↑,
70', Arias J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
70', Igor Formiga 🟨,
73', Andre Luis ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
78', Shaylon ↓, Alesson ↑,
80', Mauricio ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
81', Marlon Freitas ↓, Larson ↑,
90+6', Negueba 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.

Palmeiras is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mirassol's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palmeiras is the team to beat.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Injury) Mauricio (Inactive) Murilo (Inactive) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Vitor Roque (Inactive)

There will not play in Mirassol: Eduardo (Injury) Igor Carius (Injury) Renato Marques (Inactive)

We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.61.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:16. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.03.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Palmeiras - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
10.03.26	Mirassol - Santos	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Mirassol - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Capivariano - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Remo - Mirassol	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.11.25	Mirassol - Palmeiras	2:1
16.07.25	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Mirassol - Palmeiras	2:3
24.02.24	Palmeiras - Mirassol	3:1
01.02.23	Mirassol - Palmeiras	0:2
25.04.21	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:2

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