Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.2
	1.92	3.25	4.15	Watch
	1.92	3.36	4.63
	1.88	3.41	4.54	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.2
	1.92	3.35	4.53	Watch
	1.92	3.4	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.73)	3.35 ↓ (3.71)	4.35 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
50.1%

Draw
28.2%

Vasco da Gama
21.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.2%

25.2%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

24.7%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mirassol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	17.6%	11.8%

Mirassol - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Vasco (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo (C) 25. Neto Moura 5. Yuri Lara 33. Eduardo 11. Negueba 77. Alesson 78. Renato Marques	1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes 17. Moreira N. 10. Coutinho (C) 11. Andres Gomez 28. Rojas J.
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 21. Jose Aldo 26. Lucas Mugni 4. Luiz Otavio 9. Nathan Fogaca 70. Rodrigo Rodrigues 97. Rodrigues 7. Shaylon	74. Andrey Fernandes 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 19. GB 14. Guilherme Estrella 25. Hugo Moura 60. Joao Vitor 98. JP 9. Matheus Franca 4. Saldivia A. 3. Tche Tche 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Coutinho ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Cuesta C. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Moreira N. 🟨,
54', 2 - 1, Eduardo ⚽, Alesson (A),
63', Eduardo ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
63', Renato Marques ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
68', Rojas J. ↓, Andrey Fernandes ↑,
68', Moreira N. ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
69', Alesson ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
69', Neto Moura ↓, Jose Aldo ↑,
74', Willian Machado 🟨,
74', Lucas Piton ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
80', Cauan Barros ↓, GB ↑,
82', Nathan Fogaca 🟨,
85', Reinaldo ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Mirassol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mirassol is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36:44	-8	36
15	Vasco	30	9	8	13	36:43	-7	35

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.54 are the expected chance of winning is 20.6%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	EC Primavera - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTLLW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
15.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Maricá	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Mirassol	0:2
02.08.25	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	3:2

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