Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3, Nova Sport
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, Arena Premium 4
Mexico	FOX One, Tubi TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Digiturk
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	OneFootball TV


	Monaco		Lens

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.90	4.00	Watch
	1.83	3.90	3.90
	1.95	3.6	3.7	Watch
	1.96	3.95	3.9
	1.94	3.9	3.64	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3.85
	1.98	3.91	3.93	Watch
	1.94	3.85	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.33)	3.85 ↑ (3.83)	3.82 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
49.9%

Draw
25%

Lens
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

24.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

24.1%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monaco's performance.

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monaco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.6%	11.5%	4.9%

Monaco - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 51 - 83.6%). Lens will win (votes: 3 - 4.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 74.3% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Monaco (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Lens (3.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.57) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - Monaco & Yes (3.20) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

1X2 - Monaco (1.91) (votes: 90%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monaco will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Lens (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (G) 2. Vanderson 72. Sane S. 15. Dier E. 20. Nazinho 37. Diop E. 8. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 10. Golovin A. 11. Abline M. 29. Brunner P.	40. Risser R. (G) 32. Antonio K. 20. Todibo J. 14. Udol M. 2. Aguilar R. 27. Cuisance M. 21. Haidara A. 28. Kadile J. 10. Thauvin F. (C) 38. Soares M. 19. Sima A.
Substitutes
9. Balogun F. 47. Benzahra S. 19. Cabral P. 7. Detourbet M. 16. Kohn P. (G) 13. Mawissa C. 18. Minamino T. 22. Salisu M. 49. Toure I.	5. Bulatovic A. 11. Edouard O. 16. Gorgelin M. (G) 24. Gradit J. 9. Hazard T. 29. Ivanovic F. 31. Sagnan S. 22. Skoras M. 7. Sotoca F.
Coaches
Filipe Luis	Cahuzac Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Brunner P. ⚽, Abline M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Todibo J. ↓, Gradit J. ↑,
53', Thauvin F. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Udol M. ⚽, Thauvin F. (A),
58', Soares M. ↓, Hazard T. ↑,
58', Sima A. ↓, Edouard O. ↑,
62', Diop E. ↓, Detourbet M. ↑,
69', Kadile J. ↓, Skoras M. ↑,
71', Camara L. 🟨,
72', Haidara A. ↓, Bulatovic A. ↑,
76', Abline M. ↓, Balogun F. ↑,
76', Zakaria D. ↓, Cabral P. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Gradit J. (Own goal),
90+2', Brunner P. ↓, Salisu M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 2.

Monaco is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Lens has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lens may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Monaco is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Monaco: Coulibaly M. (Muscle Injury) Fati A. (Calf Injury) Idumbo S. (Groin Injury) Soubeir A. (Injury) Teze J. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Lens: Abdulhamid S. (Contusion) Baidoo S. (Knee Injury) Chavez J. (Thigh Injury) Nawrocki M. (Injury) Titraoui Y. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Monaco: Balogun F. (Injury) Minamino T. (Lacking Match Fitness).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Monaco has recorded 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 38:32 (averaging 1.9:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Monaco against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 16:15 goals (averaging 1.6:1.5 per game).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 8.18% Lens: 1.95%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8:3	5	13
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9:9	0	4

Last Results with these Odds

Lens - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.75%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
12.09.26	Strasbourg - Monaco	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Monaco - Górnik Zabrze	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.08.26	Le Havre - Monaco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 TWWWW
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
13.09.26	Le Mans - Lens	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Slavia Prague - Lens	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.09.26	Lens - Lorient	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Strasbourg - Lens	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Lens - Auxerre	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
21.02.26	Lens - Monaco	2:3
08.11.25	Monaco - Lens	1:4
17.05.25	Lens - Monaco	4:0
01.09.24	Monaco - Lens	1:1
25.02.24	Lens - Monaco	2:3
Coupe De France
07.01.24	Lens - Monaco	2:3 penalties
French Ligue 1
02.09.23	Monaco - Lens	3:0

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