Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio BBVA Bancomer (Monterrey)

Referee: Molina Astorga M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Monterrey		Mazatlan

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.35	5	8
	1.32	5.4	8.3	Watch
	1.34	5.54	9.42
	1.38	4.67	7.93	Watch
	1.33	4.4	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.8	8.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.52)	4.94 ↑ (3.98)	8.4 ↑ (6.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
69.8%

Draw
19%

Mazatlan
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

23.5%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

22.8%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monterrey's performance.

Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monterrey that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Monterrey - Mazatlan Predictions

Users Predictions: Monterrey will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monterrey will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mele S. (G) 2. Chavez R. 21. Reyes L. 93. Ramos S. (C) 4. Guzman V. 30. Rodriguez J. 10. Canales S. 7. Berterame G. 29. Ocampos L. 8. Torres O. 17. Corona J.	1. Gutierrez D. (G) 2. Garcia J. 15. Colula B. 16. Esquivel J. 5. Almada F. 19. Merolla L. 7. Dudu 23. Sierra J. 90. Fabio Gomes 10. Benedetti N. (C) 28. Hernandez D.
Substitutes
14. Aguirre E. 5. Ambriz F. 3. Arteaga G. 22. Cardenas L. (G) 35. Fimbres I. 33. Medina S. 15. Moreno H. 192. Moxica J. 31. Rodriguez M. 23. Sanchez L.	13. Alcaraz Diaz V. A. (G) 11. Barcenas Y. 4. Diaz J. 8. Fierro S. 199. Gonzalez I. 20. Lainez M. 26. Leyva A. 34. Moreno Villegas O. F. 31. Saavedra Nevarez A. A. 18. Torres A.
Coaches
Torrent D.	Siboldi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Esquivel J. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Guzman V. ⚽, Corona J. (A),
26', 2 - 1, Ocampos L. ⚽,
45+5', 3 - 1, Ocampos L. ⚽, Reyes L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hernandez D. ↓, Barcenas Y. ↑,
46', Garcia J. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
56', Diaz J. 🟨,
60', Dudu ↓, Lainez M. ↑,
63', Torres O. 🟨,
64', Ramos S. 🟨,
70', Torres O. ↓, Fimbres I. ↑,
70', Esquivel J. ↓, Moreno Villegas O. F. ↑,
83', 3 - 2, Moreno Villegas O. F. ⚽, Benedetti N. (A),
87', Ocampos L. ↓, Ambriz F. ↑,
87', Corona J. ↓, Arteaga G. ↑,
90+1', Chavez R. 🟨,
90+3', Canales S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Monterrey has had a series of home games.

In this match, Monterrey is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Monterrey: Andrada E. (Elbow Injury) Salcedo C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mazatlan: Barcenas Y. (Knee Injury) Intriago J. (Hamstring Injury) Meraz R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mazatlan: Herrera A. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 1.4:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX
11.08.25	Club León - Monterrey	1:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	Monterrey - Charlotte	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Monterrey - New York Red Bulls	2:1 penalties ✺
31.07.25	Monterrey - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
26.07.25	Monterrey - Atlas	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWLW
- Mazatlan FC
Mexican Liga MX
09.08.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
05.08.25	Mazatlan - San Diego	0:2 ✺
01.08.25	Houston Dynamo - Mazatlan	0:2 ✺
29.07.25	Los Angeles - Mazatlan	1:2 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
26.07.25	Pachuca - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
25.02.25	Mazatlan - Monterrey	1:0
21.09.24	Monterrey - Mazatlan	0:0
10.03.24	Monterrey - Mazatlan	2:1
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Mazatlan - Monterrey	1:2
Mexican Liga MX
14.07.23	Mazatlan - Monterrey	0:3
21.04.23	Mazatlan - Monterrey	0:2
03.09.22	Monterrey - Mazatlan	0:0

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