Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio BBVA Bancomer (Monterrey)

Referee: Peinaldo Aguirre Y. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	NBC Universo, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
World	VIX App


	Monterrey		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5.25
	1.55	4.45	4.95	Watch
	1.55	4.62	5.56
	1.66	4.28	4.35	Watch
	1.55	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.57	4.45	5.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.68)	4.36 ↑ (4.08)	5.02 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
59.8%

Draw
21.5%

Necaxa
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

23.2%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

22.7%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Monterrey - Necaxa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Monterrey will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monterrey will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mele S. (G) 5. Ambriz F. 33. Medina S. 93. Ramos S. (C) 3. Arteaga G. 30. Rodriguez J. 14. Aguirre E. 29. Ocampos L. 10. Canales S. 17. Corona J. 7. Berterame G.	22. Unsain E. (G) 5. Jacob T. 4. Pena A. (C) 14. De Buen D. 24. Rossano F. 2. Martinez E. 7. Rosero K. 13. Andrade A. 8. Palavecino A. 30. Monreal R. 27. Cambindo D.
Substitutes
22. Cardenas L. (G) 2. Chavez R. 35. Fimbres I. 32. Leone T. 15. Moreno H. 192. Moxica J. 21. Reyes L. 31. Rodriguez M. 23. Sanchez L. 8. Torres O.	9. Badaloni T. 17. Cortez R. 19. Gomez D. 6. Jesus Alcantar 12. Jimenez L. (G) 3. Oliveros A. 15. Perez P. 29. Rodriguez I. 21. Rojas J. 11. Sanchez R.
Coaches
Torrent D.	Gago F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Ocampos L. ⚽, Canales S. (A),
21', 2 - 0, Canales S. ⚽,
27', Monreal R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Monreal R. ↓, Badaloni T. ↑,
46', Andrade A. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Torres O. ↑,
52', Rossano F. 🟨,
56', Unsain E. 🟨,
59', 3 - 0, Ramos S. (Pen),
60', Medina S. ↓, Moreno H. ↑,
60', Corona J. ↓, Fimbres I. ↑,
63', Rossano F. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
70', Ramos S. 🟨,
72', Rosero K. 🟨,
75', Ocampos L. ↓, Reyes L. ↑,
78', Cambindo D. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
86', Berterame G. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 5.

Recent performances by Monterrey have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Necaxa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Necaxa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Monterrey has had a series of home games.

In this match, Monterrey is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Monterrey: Andrada E. (Elbow Injury) Salcedo C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E. (Elbow Injury)

There are questionable in Necaxa: Calderon C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX
17.08.25	Monterrey - Mazatlan	3:2 ✺
11.08.25	Club León - Monterrey	1:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	Monterrey - Charlotte	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Monterrey - New York Red Bulls	2:1 penalties ✺
31.07.25	Monterrey - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWL
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
15.08.25	Necaxa - Club León	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	UNAM - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Orlando City - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
02.08.25	Inter Miami - Necaxa	3:2 penalties ✺
30.07.25	Necaxa - Atlanta United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
01.02.25	Monterrey - Necaxa	1:0
17.07.24	Necaxa - Monterrey	0:1
28.04.24	Necaxa - Monterrey	2:5
31.10.23	Monterrey - Necaxa	3:0
18.02.23	Monterrey - Necaxa	2:1
12.08.22	Necaxa - Monterrey	1:2
14.01.22	Necaxa - Monterrey	0:4

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