What is the expert prediction for Monterrey vs Puebla?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Monterrey vs Puebla. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Monterrey vs Puebla Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)

Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio BBVA (Monterrey)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Monterrey		Puebla

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.52	4.45	5.4	Watch
	1.55	4.6	5.83
	1.55	4.53	5.34	Watch
	1.44	4	5
	1.51	4.35	5.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 (1.51)	4.41 ↑ (4.12)	5.43 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
61.7%

Draw
21.2%

Puebla
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

21.9%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

16.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monterrey that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Puebla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: Monterrey will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mele S. (G) 2. Chavez R. 4. Guzman V. 13. Salcedo C. (C) 21. Reyes L. 5. Ambriz F. 8. Torres O. 11. Orellano L. 17. Corona J. 29. Ocampos L. 27. de la Rosa R.	28. Gutierrez D. (G) 192. Navarro E. 4. Vargas J. 6. Diaz N. (C) 12. Moreno I. 16. Ramirez A. 24. Organista A. 18. Gamarra A. 27. Garnica B. 11. Gomez E. 25. Canelo A.
Substitutes
19. Aceves A. 14. Aguirre E. 3. Arteaga G. 10. Canales S. 22. Cardenas L. (G) 20. Djurdjevic U. 35. Fimbres I. 246. Galvez O. 194. Reyes C. 32. Rodriguez S.	32. Araos A. 22. Baltazar C. 21. Gonzalez O. 17. Lozano E. 29. Mustre E. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 8. Ramirez M. 3. Rey L. 33. Rodriguez J. (G) 5. Torres U.
Coaches
Sanchez N.	Espigares A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Gomez E. ⚽, Garnica B. (A),
15', Ambriz F. 🟨,
31', Canelo A. ↓, Lozano E. ↑,
42', 1 - 1, Ocampos L. (Penalty Awarded),
44', 2 - 1, Torres O. ⚽, Chavez R. (A),
45+3', Organista A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Torres O. ↓, Fimbres I. ↑,
67', Reyes L. ↓, Arteaga G. ↑,
73', Corona J. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
74', Navarro E. ↓, Torres U. ↑,
74', Ramirez A. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
80', Salcedo C. 🟨,
84', Salcedo C. ↓, Aceves A. ↑,
84', Orellano L. ↓, Reyes C. ↑,
89', Reyes C. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Monterrey is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Puebla: Guerra E. (Red Card) Monarrez F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Monterrey: Fimbres I. (Ankle Injury) Rodriguez J. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Puebla: Castillo R. (Broken Leg) Cavallini L. (Knee Injury) Maestro I. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.7:1.3).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Puebla	5	3	1	1	9:7	2	10
7	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12:7	5	9

Last Results with these Odds

Monterrey - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 59.7%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX
18.04.26	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	Atlas - Monterrey	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Monterrey - Atlético San Luis	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara	2:3 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
17.03.26	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLLT
- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
18.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Puebla	5:0 ✺
10.04.26	Puebla - Club León	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Puebla - Juárez	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Santos Laguna - Puebla	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Puebla - Necaxa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
29.08.25	Puebla - Monterrey	2:4
12.01.25	Monterrey - Puebla	1:1
16.08.24	Puebla - Monterrey	1:2
13.01.24	Monterrey - Puebla	2:0
03.10.23	Puebla - Monterrey	1:1
27.01.23	Puebla - Monterrey	1:2
26.07.22	Monterrey - Puebla	1:0

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