Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio BBVA (Monterrey)

Referee: Quintero D. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, VIX, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Monterrey		Pachuca

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.75	Watch
	2.42	3.55	2.68	Watch
	2.56	3.75	2.8
	2.42	3.68	2.71	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.5
	2.47	3.53	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.28)	3.55 ↑ (3.35)	2.71 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
38.8%

Draw
26.5%

Pachuca
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

27.2%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

27.9%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Pachuca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Monterrey - Pachuca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Monterrey will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Pachuca will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monterrey: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Cardenas L. (G) 2. Chavez R. 33. Medina S. (C) 13. Salcedo C. 21. Reyes L. 5. Ambriz F. 8. Torres O. 11. Orellano L. 17. Corona J. 29. Ocampos L. 27. de la Rosa R.	25. Moreno C. (C) 14. Sanchez C. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 12. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 16. Rivera C. 8. Guzman V. 29. Kenedy 28. Montiel E. 11. Idrissi O. 23. Rondon S.
Substitutes
19. Aceves A. 14. Aguirre E. 3. Arteaga G. 10. Canales S. 20. Djurdjevic U. 246. Galvez O. 4. Guzman V. 25. Mele S. (G) 194. Reyes C. 32. Rodriguez S.	184. Alfaro C. 187. Alvarez G. 26. Bautista A. 13. Berlanga J. 18. Dominguez A. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 21. Lopez R. 7. Quinones L. 188. Rodriguez S. 10. Valencia E.
Coaches
Sanchez N.	Lozano J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Ocampos L. (Penalty Awarded),
26', Medina S. 🟨,
26', Rondon S. 🟨,
28', Eduardo Bauermann 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Montiel E. ↓, Bautista A. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Kenedy ⚽,
64', Corona J. ↓, Canales S. ↑,
64', Idrissi O. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
70', Rivera C. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Bautista A. ⚽, Dominguez A. (A),
76', Rondon S. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
76', Ocampos L. 🟨,
78', Orellano L. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
78', Reyes L. ↓, Arteaga G. ↑,
79', Ocampos L. ↓, Djurdjevic U. ↑,
80', Guzman V. 🟨,
83', 1 - 3, Valencia E. ⚽, Rivera C. (A),
87', Kenedy ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 2.

Monterrey has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pachuca is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Monterrey is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Monterrey: Fimbres I. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Pachuca: Micolta A. (Knee Injury) Mozo A. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Monterrey: Rodriguez J. (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:29. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.7:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16:14	2	13
12	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15:11	4	12

Last Results with these Odds

Monterrey - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.01%, but this team recently wins 47% of matches with these odds.

Pachuca - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 32.8%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Atlas - Monterrey	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Monterrey - Atlético San Luis	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara	2:3 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
17.03.26	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
13.03.26	Juárez - Monterrey	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLLTT
- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
11.04.26	Pachuca - Santos Laguna	4:2 ✺
04.04.26	Cruz Azul - Pachuca	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Pachuca - Toluca	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético San Luis - Pachuca	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Pachuca - Puebla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
13.07.25	Pachuca - Monterrey	3:0
27.04.25	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:2
25.01.25	Monterrey - Pachuca	2:3
07.07.24	Pachuca - Monterrey	0:1
10.02.24	Monterrey - Pachuca	3:2
04.11.23	Pachuca - Monterrey	0:2
12.03.23	Pachuca - Monterrey	1:2

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