Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio BBVA (Monterrey) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ramos C. A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	19:00	VIX, ViX Premium
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Usa	21:00	TUDN App, TUDN


	Monterrey		Pachuca

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	5.25	Watch
	1.63	4.10	4.60
	1.58	4.15	4.9	Watch
	1.59	4.46	5.55
	1.65	4.12	4.87	Watch
	1.57	4.3	5.45
	1.63	4.4	4.98	Watch
	1.57	4.3	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.83)	4.27 ↑ (4.02)	5.08 ↑ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
59.3%

Draw
22.1%

Pachuca
18.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.7%

23.5%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

24%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monterrey's performance.

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pachuca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monterrey that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Monterrey - Pachuca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Monterrey (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Monterrey will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andrada E. (G) 2. Chavez R. 4. Guzman V. 13. Salcedo C. 3. Arteaga G. 18. Garza C. 25. Pineda O. 9. Rossi D. 17. Corona J. (C) 7. Ocampos L. 99. Cuypers H.	25. Moreno C. (C) 13. Berlanga J. 4. Eduardo Bauermann 2. Barreto S. D. 6. Isais M. 26. Bautista A. 16. Rivera C. 21. Vallejo N. 7. Pizarro R. 11. Idrissi O. 23. Rondon S.
Substitutes
19. Aceves A. 14. Aguirre E. 5. Ambriz F. 22. Cardenas L. (G) 27. de la Rosa R. 33. Medina S. 10. Orellano L. 30. Rodriguez J. 244. Ruffin P. 8. Torres O.	187. Alvarez G. 32. Budib P. 31. Eulogio J. (G) 211. Hernandez C. 19. Hernandez I. 221. Martinez U. 205. Padilla A. 30. Rodriguez S. 12. Santos S. 207. Zavala I.
Coaches
Almeyda M.	Mora B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', Ocampos L. (Penalty Awarded),
13', 1 - 0, Rossi D. ⚽,
16', 2 - 0, Corona J. ⚽, Ocampos L. (A),
22', Ocampos L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Pizarro R. 🟨,
63', Isais M. ↓, Hernandez C. ↑,
72', Ocampos L. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
72', Rossi D. ↓, Torres O. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Rondon S. ⚽, Berlanga J. (A),
78', Corona J. ↓, Medina S. ↑,
78', Chavez R. ↓, Ruffin P. ↑,
81', Vallejo N. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
84', Barreto S. D. 🟨,
85', Moreno C. 🟨,
85', Arteaga G. 🟨,
87', Berlanga J. ↓, Santos S. ↑,
87', Pizarro R. ↓, Hernandez I. ↑,
88', Torres O. 🟨,
89', Garza C. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 12th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Pachuca may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Monterrey carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Pachuca: Arroyo A. (Foot Injury) Dominguez A. (Foot Injury) Kenedy (Injury) Venegas F. (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Monterrey: Djurdjevic U. (Inactive) Medina S. (Knock).

Doubtful / questionable for Pachuca: Micolta A. (Knee Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Monterrey has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 33:32 (averaging 1.7:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Monterrey against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 15:13 goals (averaging 1.7:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	23:18	5	20
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22:19	3	16

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now

Monterrey: 8.85% Pachuca: 1.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Monterrey - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.67%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX
10.10.26	Club América - Monterrey	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Atlante - Monterrey	4:2 ✺
19.09.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Monterrey - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.09.26	Toluca - Monterrey	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLWTL
- CF Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX
11.10.26	Pachuca - Necaxa	3:3 ✺
26.09.26	Santos Laguna - Pachuca	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Pachuca - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Atlante - Pachuca	0:3 ✺
04.09.26	Juárez - Pachuca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
18.04.26	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:3
13.07.25	Pachuca - Monterrey	3:0
27.04.25	Monterrey - Pachuca	1:2
25.01.25	Monterrey - Pachuca	2:3
07.07.24	Pachuca - Monterrey	0:1
10.02.24	Monterrey - Pachuca	3:2
04.11.23	Pachuca - Monterrey	0:2

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