Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (Puebla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Puebla		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.1	Watch
	2.22	3.35	3.05
	2.31	3.54	3.17
	2.18	3.6	3.16	Watch
	2.15	3.2	2.8
	2.28	3.68	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.3)	3.5 ↓ (3.51)	3.05 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puebla
42.5%

Draw
26.8%

Necaxa
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

26.5%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

26.2%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

Puebla - Necaxa Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Puebla will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Puebla: 59% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Puebla (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Gutierrez D. (G) 12. Moreno I. 20. Pachuca Martinez J. R. 4. Vargas J. 192. Navarro E. 6. Diaz N. (C) 26. Velasco K. 3. Rey L. 16. Ramirez A. 11. Gomez E. 15. Guerra E.	22. Unsain E. (C) 26. Lara E. 33. Martinez R. 3. Oliveros A. 5. Gutierrez K. 7. Rosero K. 6. Leyva D. 8. Faravelli L. 24. Rossano F. 35. Ruiz J. 9. Badaloni T.
Substitutes
32. Araos A. 22. Baltazar C. 25. Canelo A. 18. Gamarra A. 27. Garnica B. 21. Gonzalez O. 17. Lozano E. 7. Monarrez F. 24. Organista A. 33. Rodriguez J. (G)	232. Alonso R. 16. Calderon C. 189. Casas B. 17. Cortez R. 12. Jimenez L. (G) 2. Martinez E. 20. Mendez F. 30. Monreal R. 197. Moreno A. 188. Tello I.
Coaches
Espigares A.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Navarro E. 🟨,
34', Leyva D. 🟨,
40', Lara E. 🟨,
45+2', Diaz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pachuca Martinez J. R. ↓, Organista A. ↑,
59', Moreno I. 🟨,
60', Rosero K. 🟥,
70', Navarro E. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
71', Velasco K. ↓, Lozano E. ↑,
71', Moreno I. ↓, Garnica B. ↑,
72', Ruiz J. ↓, Monreal R. ↑,
81', Guerra E. 🟨,
85', Rossano F. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
85', Guerra E. ↓, Araos A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 1.

Puebla has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Necaxa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Puebla is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Puebla: Castillo R. (Injury) Cavallini L. (Knee Injury) Maestro I. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Necaxa: Pena A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:27. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	12:13	-1	15
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12:20	-8	8

Last Results with these Odds

Necaxa - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.06%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puebla FC
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.26	Pachuca - Puebla	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Puebla - Tigres UANL	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Atlético San Luis - Puebla	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Puebla - Club América	0:4 ✺
13.02.26	Puebla - UNAM	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LWWLL
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
06.03.26	Necaxa - UNAM	0:1 ✺
03.03.26	Pachuca - Necaxa	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Club León - Necaxa	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Necaxa - Toluca	0:3 ✺
14.02.26	Juárez - Necaxa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
19.09.25	Necaxa - Puebla	1:0
18.04.25	Puebla - Necaxa	0:1
13.07.24	Necaxa - Puebla	4:1
19.01.24	Puebla - Necaxa	1:2
08.10.23	Necaxa - Puebla	1:2
14.04.23	Necaxa - Puebla	1:1
16.08.22	Puebla - Necaxa	2:2

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