Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio BBVA (Monterrey)

Referee: Caceres V. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Monterrey		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.1
	3.55	3.7	1.92	Watch
	3.74	3.79	2.01
	3.38	3.63	2.08
	3.3	3.3	1.85	Watch
	4.05	3.64	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (2.73)	3.59 ↑ (3.38)	1.97 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
26.2%

Draw
26.1%

Chivas Guadalajara
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

27.2%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

27.2%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterrey's form might have worsened.

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chivas Guadalajara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterrey, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chivas Guadalajara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 18 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guadalajara: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Guadalajara (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Guadalajara (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chivas Guadalajara will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Cardenas L. (C) 2. Chavez R. 3. Arteaga G. 13. Salcedo C. 5. Ambriz F. 21. Reyes L. 27. de la Rosa R. 30. Rodriguez J. 20. Djurdjevic U. 194. Reyes C. 11. Orellano L.	1. Rangel R. (G) 23. Aguirre D. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 2. Castillo J. 20. Sepulveda A. 28. Gonzalez F. (C) 37. Ledezma R. 5. Gonzalez B. 25. Alvarado R. 6. Govea O. 34. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
34. Bustos C. 188. Dominguez J. 193. Frayde C. 246. Galvez O. 256. Garcia D. 9. Martial A. 25. Mele S. (G) 192. Moxica J. 8. Torres O.	10. Alvarez E. 26. Camberos H. 24. Gomez M. 11. Gutierrez B. 17. Marin R. 31. Padilla Y. 226. Sandoval S. 3. Sepulveda G. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G)
Coaches
Sanchez N.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Sepulveda A. (A),
37', Govea O. 🟨,
45+3', Salcedo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', 0 - 2, Castillo J. ⚽, Gonzalez B. (A),
55', 0 - 3, Gonzalez B. ⚽, Ledezma R. (A),
59', Ambriz F. ↓, Torres O. ↑,
59', Reyes C. ↓, Bustos C. ↑,
61', Alvarado R. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
61', Sepulveda A. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
68', Ledezma R. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
68', Gonzalez A. ↓, Sandoval S. ↑,
76', de la Rosa R. ↓, Galvez O. ↑,
76', Orellano L. ↓, Moxica J. ↑,
76', Govea O. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
84', Aguirre D. 🟨,
88', 1 - 3, Djurdjevic U. ⚽, Chavez R. (A),
90+4', 2 - 3, Chavez R. ⚽, Torres O. (A),
90+5', Gutierrez B. 🟨,
90+8', Djurdjevic U. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Monterrey may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Guadalajara might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Monterrey: Aguirre E. (Injury) Guzman V. (Red Card)

There will not play in Guadalajara: Romo L. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Monterrey: Ambriz F. (Muscle Injury) Fimbres I. (Injury) Torres O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Guadalajara: Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:29. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.4:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17:15	2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
CONCACAF Champions Cup
17.03.26	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	1:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
13.03.26	Juárez - Monterrey	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.03.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.26	Tigres UANL - Monterrey	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	Monterrey - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTLLW
- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
18.03.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Club León	5:0 ✺
14.03.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Santos Laguna	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cruz Azul - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
08.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Monterrey	4:2
05.04.25	Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara	3:1
28.09.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Monterrey	1:1
30.03.24	Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2
03.09.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Monterrey	1:2
07.01.23	Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1
23.08.22	Chivas Guadalajara - Monterrey	1:0

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