Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 1

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio BBVA Bancomer (Monterrey)

Referee: Santander Aguirre L. E. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Mexico	Las Estrellas, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Monterrey		Toluca

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2	3.7	3.25
	1.98	3.55	3.45	Watch
	1.94	3.88	3.59	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.1
	2.16	3.59	3.34	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.04)	3.55 ↑ (3.5)	3.36 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterrey
46%

Draw
26.3%

Toluca
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

27%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Monterrey - Toluca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Monterrey (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Monterrey will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 98.67%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monterrey will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Monterrey (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Toluca (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Cardenas L. (G) 3. Arteaga G. 19. Aceves A. 33. Medina S. 5. Ambriz F. 8. Torres O. 10. Canales S. (C) 14. Aguirre E. 30. Rodriguez J. 7. Berterame G. 9. Martial A.	1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez (C) 25. del Villar E. 17. Isais M. 24. Arce F. 15. Perez P. 11. Helinho 19. Simon S. 8. Castro N. 23. Virgen O.
Substitutes
2. Chavez R. 27. de la Rosa R. 35. Fimbres I. 246. Galvez O. 4. Guzman V. 25. Mele S. (G) 184. Reyes C. 21. Reyes L. 251. Rojas A. 13. Salcedo C.	35. Alvarez A. 10. Angulo J. 207. Arroyo J. 33. Arteaga V. 189. Bravo G. 29. Diaz J. 250. Estrada J. 22. Garcia L. (G) 6. Pereira F. 187. Pumpido F.
Coaches
Torrent D.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Helinho 🟨,
24', Gonzalez H. 🟨,
38', Arce F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 1, Helinho ⚽, Simon S. (A),
59', Arteaga G. ↓, Reyes L. ↑,
59', Martial A. ↓, de la Rosa R. ↑,
60', Aguirre E. ↓, Chavez R. ↑,
67', Virgen O. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
71', Ambriz F. ↓, Fimbres I. ↑,
74', Perez P. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
78', Pereira F. 🟨,
81', Torres O. ↓, Reyes C. ↑,
82', Helinho ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
82', Castro N. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
86', Barbosa D. 🟨,
88', Canales S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Monterrey may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Monterrey has had a series of away games.

In this match, Monterrey is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Monterrey: Ocampos L. (Face Injury)

There will not play in Toluca: Luan (Muscle Injury) Romero F. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Monterrey: Corona J. (Knee Injury) Rodriguez M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:33. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16:14	2	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Monterrey
Club Friendly
04.01.26	Atlas - Monterrey	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Monterrey	0:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
06.12.25	Toluca - Monterrey	3:2 ✺
03.12.25	Monterrey - Toluca	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Club América - Monterrey	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWL
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
14.12.25	Toluca - Tigres UANL	3:1 penalties ✺
11.12.25	Tigres UANL - Toluca	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Toluca - Monterrey	3:2 ✺
03.12.25	Monterrey - Toluca	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Toluca - Juárez	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
06.12.25	Toluca - Monterrey	3:2
03.12.25	Monterrey - Toluca	1:0
24.09.25	Toluca - Monterrey	6:2
10.05.25	Toluca - Monterrey	2:1
07.05.25	Monterrey - Toluca	3:2
18.01.25	Toluca - Monterrey	1:1
31.08.24	Monterrey - Toluca	1:2

Monterrey - Toluca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide