The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Toluca 48.4%
Draw 25.4%
Tigres UANL 26.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.6%
27.8%
27.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.8%
28.5%
26.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
84%
10%
6%
Toluca - Tigres UANL Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH -0.5 - Toluca (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
EH +1 - Tigres (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(42 of 49 users predict this - 85.71%). Confidence interval (95%): 75.91% โ 95.51%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) ๐ฅ Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 7 - 70%). Tigres (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 4. Bruno Mendez 25. del Villar E. 6. Pereira F. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 11. Helinho 10. Angulo J. 8. Castro N. 26. Paulinho
1. Guzman N. (G) 14. Garza J. 23. Romulo 28. Joaquim 32. Lorona V. 5. Araujo C. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 16. Lainez D. 7. Correa A. 77. Herrera O. 17. Aguirre R.
Substitutes
35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 29. Diaz J. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 13. Luan 16. Orta E. 15. Perez P.
27. Angulo J. 11. Brunetta J. 13. Carrera A. (G) 3. Farfan M. 20. Flores M. 10. Gignac A. 2. Reyes F. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 30. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 4. Sanchez J. 22. Simeone 6. Vigon J.
Coaches
Mohamed A.
Pizarro G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Ruiz M. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
63', Herrera O. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
68', Aguirre R. ↓, Brunetta J. ↑,
68', Lorona V. ↓, Farfan M. ↑,
70', Angulo J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
78', Flores M. ↓, Gignac A. ↑,
78', Araujo C. ↓, Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↑,
87', del Villar E. 🟨,
89', Helinho ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
89', Castro N. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
90+3', Lainez D. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
91', del Villar E. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
96', Isais M. 🟨,
101', Paulinho ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
104', 1 - 0, Diaz J. ⚽, Arce F. (A),
109', Garza J. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
114', 1 - 1, Joaquim ⚽, Brunetta J. (A),
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, Perez P. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Gignac A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Simon S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Brunetta J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Pereira F. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Gorriaran F. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Diaz J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Correa A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Romero F. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Lainez D. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Cordova S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Romulo (Penalty Awarded),
7, Arce F. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Sanchez J. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Guzman N. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
In recent matches, Toluca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Tigres is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins โ 4).
In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 32:31. (average 1.6:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:12. (average 2.7:1.3).
Last Results with these Odds
Toluca - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 44.6%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.