Match Info

Leagues Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Shell Energy Stadium (Houston, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Imagen Television, TUDN
Usa	SportsEngine Play, TUDN
World	Apple TV International


	Toluca		Monterrey

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.50	3.60	Watch
	1.98	3.40	3.10
	2.07	3.35	3.50
	2.05	3.83	3.51
	2.14	3.56	3.34	Watch
	2.03	3.75	3.40
	1.97	3.54	3.83	Watch
	2.00	3.60	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.13)	3.57 ↑ (3.33)	3.45 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
46.3%

Draw
26.4%

Monterrey
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

27.9%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

26.8%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Toluca - Monterrey Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (5.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 8. Castro N. 5. Romero F. 10. Angulo J. 11. Helinho 16. Vinas F. 9. Vega A. (C)	1. Andrada E. (G) 2. Chavez R. 4. Guzman V. 13. Salcedo C. 3. Arteaga G. 8. Torres O. 25. Pineda O. 7. Ocampos L. 9. Rossi D. 17. Corona J. (C) 99. Cuypers H.
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 29. Diaz Price J. 7. Guzman V. 13. Luan 192. Navarrete L. 26. Paulinho 15. Perez P. 18. Shrem D. (G) 23. Virgen O.	14. Aguirre E. 5. Ambriz F. 22. Cardenas L. (G) 27. de la Rosa R. 32. Djurdjevic U. 11. Fimbres I. 18. Garza C. 33. Medina S. 10. Orellano L. 31. Ramos C. (G) 21. Reyes L. 30. Rodriguez J.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Almeyda M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Pereira F. 🟨,
4', 1 - 0, Vega A. ⚽,
13', Pineda O. 🟨,
38', Romero F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Angulo J. ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
61', Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
68', Vega A. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
68', Castro N. ↓, Luan ↑,
70', 2 - 0, Helinho ⚽,
74', Barbosa D. 🟨,
75', Chavez R. ↓, Djurdjevic U. ↑,
75', Torres O. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
78', Helinho ↓, Paulinho ↑,
88', Pineda O. ↓, Fimbres I. ↑,
88', Corona J. ↓, Ambriz F. ↑,
90', Cuypers H. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.

Toluca is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Monterrey has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Toluca will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 32:28. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:12. (average 2.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF League Cup
02.09.26	Toluca - Club León	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
30.08.26	Toluca - Juárez	4:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
26.08.26	Toluca - Austin FC	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
21.08.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Atlante - Toluca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWT
- CF Monterrey
CONCACAF League Cup
02.09.26	Club América - Monterrey	2:3 penalties ✺
Mexican Liga MX
30.08.26	Monterrey - Atlético San Luis	1:3 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
25.08.26	Monterrey - Chicago Fire	2:1 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
21.08.26	Club León - Monterrey	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Monterrey - Juárez	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
10.01.26	Monterrey - Toluca	0:1
06.12.25	Toluca - Monterrey	3:2
03.12.25	Monterrey - Toluca	1:0
24.09.25	Toluca - Monterrey	6:2
10.05.25	Toluca - Monterrey	2:1
07.05.25	Monterrey - Toluca	3:2
18.01.25	Toluca - Monterrey	1:1

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