Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 7 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Charrúa (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus


	Cerrito		Montevideo Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.10	3.30
	1.97	3.35	3.20	Watch
	2.06	3.35	3.43
	1.99	3.44	3.42	Watch
	2.03	3.3	3.2
	1.95	3.25	3.47	Watch
	2.03	3.35	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.76)	3.31 ↓ (3.49)	3.35 ↓ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
45.4%

Draw
27.5%

Montevideo Wanderers
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.2%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

25.5%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerrito's form might have worsened.

Montevideo Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montevideo Wanderers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cerrito, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montevideo Wanderers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Machado L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', (Penalty Awarded),
54', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 1, Silveira E. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 2, ⚽,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Cerrito is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Cerrito has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:8 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerrito against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:4 goals (averaging 0.7:1.3 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.10.26	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
27.09.26	Cerrito - La Luz	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.26	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLWTT
- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.10.26	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	0:2 ✺
28.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Albion Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:3
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.10.22	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	2:1
22.05.22	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	0:2
24.10.21	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	2:2
29.06.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:0
19.05.12	Cerrito - Montevideo Wanderers	N/A

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