Match Info

Coupe de France - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free


	Metz		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.18	3.55	3.2
	2.1	3.59	3.24	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.1
	2.12	3.46	3.43	Watch
	2.16	3.33	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.92)	3.42 ↓ (3.64)	3.24 ↓ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
43.7%

Draw
27.4%

Montpellier
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

25.5%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

25.3%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Metz - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Montpellier will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Metz: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ba O. (G) 2. Kouao K. 5. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 3. Ballo-Toure F. 8. Traore B. 6. Toure A. 11. Mbaye M. 10. Hein G. (C) 7. Tsitaishvili G. 9. Sane I.	1. Dzodic V. (G) 2. Tchato E. 6. Omeragic B. (C) 5. Laporte J. 3. Mincarelli L. 4. Mouanga Y. 7. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 10. Pays N. 11. Savanier T. 8. Issoufou Y. 9. Mendy A.
Substitutes
17. Abuashvili G. 14. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 13. Colin M. 16. Fischer J. (G) 18. Melieres C. 20. Munongo B. 12. Stambouli B. 15. Yegbe T.	17. Da Silva L. 18. El Hannach N. 15. Fayad K. 12. Jullien C. 16. Kamgaing P. 14. Orakpo V. 33. Thiland Herard R.
Coaches
Le Mignan S.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Issoufou Y. 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Savanier T. (Penalty Awarded),
21', 0 - 2, Issoufou Y. ⚽,
27', Mendy A. 🟨,
29', Mbaye M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', 0 - 3, Tchato E. ⚽, Pays N. (A),
59', Kouao K. ↓, Colin M. ↑,
59', Ballo-Toure F. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
59', Traore B. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
64', 0 - 4, Pays N. ⚽, Issoufou Y. (A),
66', Sane I. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
67', Pays N. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
72', Fayad K. 🟨,
74', Issoufou Y. ↓, Thiland Herard R. ↑,
74', Toure A. ↓, Munongo B. ↑,
87', Savanier T. ↓, Da Silva L. ↑,
87', Tchato E. ↓, El Hannach N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 0.

Recent form of Metz has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montpellier has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Metz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Metz won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:20. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.1:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Lorient - Metz	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Biesheim - Metz	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Metz - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Auxerre - Metz	3:1 ✺
28.11.25	Metz - Rennes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLLL
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
05.01.26	Montpellier - Dunkerque	1:3 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Canet Roussillon - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Grenoble - Montpellier	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Montpellier - Pau	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Montceau Bourgogne - Montpellier	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
18.02.24	Montpellier - Metz	3:0
17.12.23	Metz - Montpellier	0:1
01.05.22	Montpellier - Metz	2:2
01.12.21	Metz - Montpellier	1:3
03.02.21	Metz - Montpellier	1:1
16.12.20	Montpellier - Metz	0:2
05.02.20	Montpellier - Metz	1:1

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