Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 20

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bastia		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.63	Watch
	2.72	3.05	2.62	Watch
	2.81	3.12	2.77
	2.76	3.01	2.71	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.63
	2.76	3.02	2.65	Watch
	2.8	3	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (2.89)	3.01 ↓ (3.15)	2.66 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
34%

Draw
30.9%

Montpellier
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

29.7%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29.6%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	50%	20%

Bastia - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bastia (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 15. Bohnert F. 6. Guidi D. (C) 4. Roncaglia A. 5. Ariss Z. 25. Aiki A. 13. Ducrocq T. 66. Janneh J. 9. Tomi F. 14. Sebas J. 18. Zaouai A.	31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 29. Tchato E. 15. Laporte J. 23. Mouanga Y. 21. Mincarelli L. 27. Omeragic B. (C) 7. Mbuku N. 18. Pays N. 11. Savanier T. 8. Issoufou Y. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
28. Akueson G. 33. Beliandjou R. 10. Boutrah A. 17. Eickmayer J. 24. Meynadier T. 1. Olmeta L. (G) 7. Vincent C.	44. Chennahi T. 3. El Hannach N. 6. Jullien C. 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 1. Michel M. (G) 14. Orakpo V. 28. Sishuba A.
Coaches
Ray R.	Camara Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Issoufou Y. (A),
25', Tchato E. 🟨,
33', Guidi D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Placide J. 🟨,
52', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
52', Omeragic B. 🟨,
54', Savanier T. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Aiki A. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Issoufou Y. ⚽, Mbuku N. (A),
68', Savanier T. ↓, Chennahi T. ↑,
73', Sebas J. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
73', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
73', Janneh J. ↓, Eickmayer J. ↑,
76', Ducrocq T. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
76', Roncaglia A. 🟥,
85', Issoufou Y. 🟨,
86', Issoufou Y. ↓, Sishuba A. ↑,
89', Mincarelli L. 🟨,
90+2', Mbuku N. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.

Bastia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Montpellier has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Montpellier has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Boutrah A. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Olmeta L. (Injury) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Zilliox N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Montpellier: Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury) Sishuba A. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Montpellier: 4.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	6:5	1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
16.01.26	Laval - Bastia	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Bastia - Troyes	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
03.01.26	Bastia - Grenoble	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Pontivy - Bastia	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWWT
- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
16.01.26	Boulogne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Metz - Montpellier	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 2
05.01.26	Montpellier - Dunkerque	1:3 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Canet Roussillon - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Grenoble - Montpellier	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0
Club Friendly
01.08.20	Bastia - Montpellier	2:2
French Ligue 1
04.02.17	Montpellier - Bastia	2:1
19.11.16	Bastia - Montpellier	1:1
16.01.16	Bastia - Montpellier	1:0
24.10.15	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0
04.04.15	Montpellier - Bastia	3:1

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