Match Info

League One - Round 34

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Links Park (Montrose)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Dumbarton FC TV


	Montrose		Dumbarton

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.7	3.25
	1.95	3.4	3.2
	1.97	3.6	3.4
	1.91	3.65	3.89
	2.01	3.58	3.48	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.4
	1.92	3.62	3.5	Watch
	1.97	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)	3.57 ↓ (3.66)	3.44 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montrose
47.2%

Draw
25.9%

Dumbarton
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

25.1%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

24.8%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montrose has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Dumbarton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montrose than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Montrose - Dumbarton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gill C. (G) 12. Freeman K. 5. Waddell K. 14. Dillon S. 23. Machado M. 10. Gardyne M. 16. Sandilands C. 22. Brown C. 20. Bertie K. 9. Stirton O. 11. Lyons B.	28. Kelly S. (G) 18. Webster K. 12. Pignatiello C. 5. Durnan M. 2. Lynas A. 7. Orsi K. 22. Shiels M. 6. Blair R. 24. Clark C. 11. Wallace T. 17. Hilton J.
Substitutes
15. Maciver-Redwood B. 25. Martin A. 21. Matthews R. (G) 24. Pollard L. 4. Quinn A. 8. Watson P. 7. Webster G. 2. Williamson R.	14. Gilfedder A. 10. Gray F. 21. McGuffie C. 31. Miller M. 20. Niang M. 23. Ruth M. 1. Smallwood L. 8. Wilson D. 3. Young G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', Durnan M. 🟨,
20', Kelly S. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Stirton O. ⚽,
28', Durnan M. ↓, McGuffie C. ↑,
41', 1 - 1, Pignatiello C. ⚽, Orsi K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Lyons B. 🟨,
55', Bertie K. ↓, Quinn A. ↑,
55', Machado M. ↓, Webster G. ↑,
61', Waddell K. 🟨,
62', Gardyne M. 🟨,
62', Webster G. 🟨,
63', 1 - 2, Wallace T. (Pen),
64', Brown C. ↓, Watson P. ↑,
64', Stirton O. ↓, Maciver-Redwood B. ↑,
68', Wallace T. ↓, Gray F. ↑,
68', Orsi K. ↓, Ruth M. ↑,
77', Pignatiello C. ↓, Wilson D. ↑,
78', Hilton J. ↓, Niang M. ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Quinn A. ⚽, Webster G. (A),

Preview

Dumbarton is Relegated to League Two

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montrose won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Montrose will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Montrose won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24:17 (average 1.4:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Montrose won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:11 (average 1.5:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montrose FC
Scottish League One
12.04.25	Queen of the South - Montrose	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Montrose - Arbroath	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Stenhousemuir - Montrose	2:3 ✺
22.03.25	Montrose - Annan Athletic	3:1 ✺
15.03.25	Montrose - Cove Rangers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWWT
- Dumbarton
Scottish League One
12.04.25	Dumbarton - Cove Rangers	1:3 ✺
05.04.25	Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton	0:6 ✺
29.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Dumbarton	2:3 ✺
22.03.25	Dumbarton - Queen of the South	0:0 ✺
15.03.25	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
15.02.25	Dumbarton - Montrose	2:3
21.12.24	Montrose - Dumbarton	1:2
21.09.24	Dumbarton - Montrose	0:1
26.03.22	Dumbarton - Montrose	0:0
05.02.22	Montrose - Dumbarton	1:1
11.12.21	Dumbarton - Montrose	1:3
28.08.21	Montrose - Dumbarton	1:2

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