Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 30

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Dumbarton Football Stadium (Dumbarton)


	Dumbarton		Queen of the South

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.7
	3.6	3.5	1.78
	4.23	3.51	1.84	Watch
	4	3.25	1.85
	4.12	3.48	1.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↑ (2.63)	3.45 ↑ (3.4)	1.8 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dumbarton
22.5%

Draw
26.5%

Queen of the South
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

27%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

26.5%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dumbarton's form might have worsened.

Queen of the South has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Queen of the South's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dumbarton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queen of the South than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Queen of the South, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dumbarton - Queen of the South Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sliwinski M. (G) 18. Webster K. 5. Durnan M. (C) 24. Clark C. 3. Young G. 21. McGuffie C. 6. Blair R. 20. Niang M. 11. Wallace T. 7. Orsi K. 23. Ruth M.	1. Stewart R. (G) 22. MacIntyre O. 4. Lyon R. (C) 16. Hannah J. 18. Charters T. 10. Kennedy K. 6. Cochrane H. 8. Luissint B. 7. Smith L. 29. Allan J. 12. Brooks A.
Substitutes
14. Gilfedder A. 10. Gray F. 17. Hilton J. 28. Kelly S. (G) 2. Lynas A. 31. Miller M. 9. Mumbongo J. 12. Pignatiello C. 8. Wilson D.	19. Bryden F. 34. Harkness S. 36. Murphy P. 17. O'Donnell L. 32. Thompson J. 26. Thomson M. (G) 23. Walker J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Wallace T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Allan J. ↓, Bryden F. ↑,
64', Kennedy K. 🟨,
68', Orsi K. ↓, Mumbongo J. ↑,
68', Blair R. ↓, Wilson D. ↑,
68', Wallace T. ↓, Gray F. ↑,
77', McGuffie C. ↓, Hilton J. ↑,
85', Niang M. ↓, Gilfedder A. ↑,
90', MacIntyre O. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dumbarton won 1.

Dumbarton has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Queen of the South is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Queen of the South will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Dumbarton won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 18:34 (average 0.9:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Dumbarton won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:15 (average 1.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dumbarton
Scottish League One
15.03.25	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Dumbarton - Inverness	0:1 ✺
04.03.25	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3 ✺
22.02.25	Cove Rangers - Dumbarton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLLLL
- Queen of the South
Scottish League One
15.03.25	Queen of the South - Alloa Athletic	3:2 ✺
08.03.25	Cove Rangers - Queen of the South	3:1 ✺
01.03.25	Queen of the South - Kelty Hearts	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Montrose - Queen of the South	0:3 ✺
15.02.25	Queen of the South - Arbroath	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
25.01.25	Queen of the South - Dumbarton	3:1
16.11.24	Dumbarton - Queen of the South	2:1
28.09.24	Queen of the South - Dumbarton	2:0
Scottish League Cup
16.07.24	Queen of the South - Dumbarton	2:0
20.07.19	Dumbarton - Queen of the South	1:4
Scottish Football Championship
10.03.18	Dumbarton - Queen of the South	0:1
02.01.18	Queen of the South - Dumbarton	0:0

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