Match Info

SCOTLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 31

Date: 30 March 2024, Saturday


	Montrose		Falkirk

	1	X	2
	7.5	5	1.3
	8	4.8	1.29
	8	5	1.33	Watch
	8.69	5.21	1.32
	8.69	5.21	1.32
	9.5	5	1.25
	8.85	5.1	1.3	Watch
	8.2	5	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.43 ↑ (4.88)	5.04 ↑ (4.13)	1.3 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montrose
10.9%

Draw
18.3%

Falkirk
70.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

22.1%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

21.6%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montrose has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Montrose's form might have worsened.

Falkirk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Falkirk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montrose than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montrose, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Falkirk than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Falkirk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Montrose - Falkirk Predictions

Users Predictions: Falkirk will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gill C. (G) 4. Quinn A. 14. Dillon S. 18. Graham L. 7. Webster G. 10. Gardyne M. 23. Machado M. 22. Brown C. 3. Steeves A. 9. Hester K. 11. Lyons B.	1. Long S. (G) 14. Yeats F. 6. Donaldson C. 26. Mackie S. 3. McCann L. 8. Spencer B. 15. Tait D. 7. Morrison C. 10. Nesbitt A. 23. Ross E. 17. MacIver R.
Substitutes
16. Batchelor C. 19. Bradford R. 20. Craig H. 15. Emslie O. 12. Hermiston B. 21. Matthews R. (G) 5. Paton I. 17. Shrive A. 2. Williamson R.	11. Agyeman A. 20. Bisland L. 31. Hogarth N. (G) 4. McGinn S. 29. Miller C. 18. Oliver G. 19. Shanley R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
4', 0 - 1, MacIver R. ⚽, Mackie S. (A),
21', 0 - 2, Nesbitt A. ⚽, Ross E. (A),
31', 1 - 2, Hester K. ⚽, Machado M. (A),
33', 1 - 3, Ross E. ⚽, MacIver R. (A),
35', Graham L. 🟨,
38', Tait D. 🟨,
41', Dillon S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Tait D. ↓, McGinn S. ↑,
47', 1 - 4, Nesbitt A. ⚽, Mackie S. (A),
49', 1 - 5, MacIver R. ⚽,
63', Nesbitt A. ↓, Miller C. ↑,
63', Morrison C. ↓, Agyeman A. ↑,
67', Ross E. ↓, Oliver G. ↑,
67', 1 - 6, Agyeman A. ⚽,
73', Gardyne M. ↓, Shrive A. ↑,
73', Machado M. ↓, Hermiston B. ↑,
73', Hester K. ↓, Craig H. ↑,
76', 1 - 7, Shanley R. ⚽,
81', Webster G. ↓, Paton I. ↑,
81', Quinn A. ↓, Emslie O. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montrose won 0.

Montrose is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Falkirk in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Falkirk is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montrose won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 21-29.

Including matches at home between the teams Montrose won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montrose FC
Scottish League One
23.03.24	Stirling Albion - Montrose	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Montrose - Annan Athletic	1:1 ✺
09.03.24	Cove Rangers - Montrose	1:4 ✺
02.03.24	Montrose - Alloa Athletic	4:3 ✺
24.02.24	Queen of the South - Montrose	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LTWWW
- Falkirk FC
Scottish League One
23.03.24	Falkirk - Edinburgh City	4:1 ✺
16.03.24	Queen of the South - Falkirk	1:4 ✺
09.03.24	Stirling Albion - Falkirk	1:2 ✺
05.03.24	Cove Rangers - Falkirk	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Falkirk - Annan Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
20.02.24	Falkirk - Montrose	3:0
28.11.23	Montrose - Falkirk	0:0
30.09.23	Falkirk - Montrose	3:2
11.04.23	Montrose - Falkirk	1:2
07.01.23	Falkirk - Montrose	2:1
15.10.22	Montrose - Falkirk	1:1
30.07.22	Falkirk - Montrose	0:0

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