Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Moralo		Diocesano

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	4.95
	1.52	4.09	5.36
	1.54	4.05	5.26
	1.57	3.7	5
	1.51	3.98	5.33
	1.52	4.2	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.56)	3.96 ↑ (3.59)	5.15 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moralo
59.3%

Draw
23%

Diocesano
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

25.2%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

23%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moralo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Diocesano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moralo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Moralo - Diocesano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Robinho ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', 2 - 0, ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 14 (Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moralo won 0.

Moralo has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Diocesano has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Moralo is considered a favorite.

We predict that Moralo will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Moralo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Moralo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.8:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Moralo	5	3	2	0	9:5	4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moralo CP
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
18.01.26	Villafranca - Moralo	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Don Benito - Moralo	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Moralo - Santa Amalia	2:0 ✺
19.12.25	Azuaga - Moralo	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Moralo - Gévora	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WTWWW
- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
18.01.26	Diocesano - Jerez	1:5 ✺
11.01.26	Villafranca - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Diocesano - Don Benito	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Santa Amalia - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Diocesano - Azuaga	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
14.09.25	Diocesano - Moralo	4:4
16.02.25	Moralo - Diocesano	1:2
06.10.24	Diocesano - Moralo	1:0
04.02.24	Moralo - Diocesano	0:3
24.09.23	Diocesano - Moralo	1:0
23.01.22	Moralo - Diocesano	3:1
11.04.21	Diocesano - Moralo	0:3

Moralo - Diocesano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide