Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Mather S. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.6	1.85
	3.8	3.6	1.87
	4.25	3.65	1.85
	4	3.65	1.8
	4.36	3.79	1.84
	4.2	3.5	1.83
	4.35	3.85	1.83	Watch
	3.9	3.55	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.15 ↑ (3.59)	3.65 ↑ (3.37)	1.85 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
22.8%

Draw
25.9%

Barnsley
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

27.7%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

27.2%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barnsley's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	0%	90.5%

Morecambe - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: Barnsley will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs)).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (33.77%), has project points - 37, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (76%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Barnsley has the most likely position - 5 (11.05%), has project points - 78, has currently - 21, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (42%), has a chance of promoted (22%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has small quality 16, importance 33, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Morecambe has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Barnsley is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Morecambe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Barnsley is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Harrogate Town - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
English League One
15.10.22	Burton Albion - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
08.10.22	Morecambe - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
01.10.22	Accrington Stanley - Morecambe	3:1 ✺
24.09.22	Morecambe - Cambridge United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLLL
- Barnsley FC
English League One
15.10.22	Bolton Wanderers - Barnsley	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.10.22	Doncaster Rovers - Barnsley	2:4 ✺
English League One
08.10.22	Barnsley - Exeter City	0:2 ✺
01.10.22	Fleetwood Town - Barnsley	0:1 ✺
24.09.22	Barnsley - Charlton Athletic	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
08.08.17	Barnsley - Morecambe	4:3

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