The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Morecambe 24.6%
Draw 25.5%
Exeter City 49.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
23.9%
26.1%
50%
Our Initial ML Estimation
23.5%
25.6%
50.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+1%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
36%
32%
32%
Morecambe - Exeter City Predictions
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 9 - 36%). Exeter will win (votes: 8 - 32%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 32%). Confidence interval (95%) for Morecambe: 17.2% – 54.8%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Preview
A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 11).
Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (24.47%), has project points - 40, has currently - 14, has a good chance of relegated (72%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Exeter has the most likely position - 16 (8.22%), has project points - 58, has currently - 25, has a small chance of relegated (8%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality15, small importance28, small match rating21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1.
Morecambe has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Exeter is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Morecambe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Morecambe have a series of guest games.
Exeter will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 18 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 3 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16-27.
Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-17.