The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Morecambe 17.6%
Draw 24.4%
Portsmouth 58%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.1%
26.4%
51.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.7%
25.9%
52.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portsmouth's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portsmouth, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
13%
8.7%
78.3%
Morecambe - Portsmouth Predictions
Users Predictions:
Portsmouth will win
(18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%). Confidence interval (95%): 61.4% – 95.12%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs)).
Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (23.1%), has project points - 40, has currently - 13, has a good chance of relegated (69%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Portsmouth has the most likely position - 4 (11.12%), has project points - 76, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (41%), has a chance of promoted (19%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).
This event has small quality17, importance32, small match rating24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1.
Morecambe is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Portsmouth is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Portsmouth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Morecambe have a series of guest games.
In this match Portsmouth is a favorite.
Last 10 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-17.
Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-5.
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