Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 26

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5


	Moreirense		Boavista

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	5.5	Watch
	1.77	3.3	4.8
	1.72	3.6	5	Watch
	1.82	3.37	4.88
	1.87	3.3	4.73	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.6	Watch
	1.78	3.46	4.96	Watch
	1.72	3.6	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.73)	3.39 ↓ (3.57)	4.93 ↓ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
53.1%

Draw
27.8%

Boavista
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

26.7%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

20.9%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Moreirense - Boavista Predictions

Users Predictions: Moreirense will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Kewin (G) 76. Pinto D. 44. Marcelo (C) 26. Maracas 15. Buta L. 6. Ramos R. 80. Ofori L. 20. Bernardo 11. Alanzinho 17. Teguia C. 9. Asue L.	31. Vaclik T. (G) 26. Abascal R. (C) 19. Vitoria S. 13. Fogning S. 7. Agra S. 18. Vukotic I. 2. Camara I. 27. Kakay O. 8. van Ginkel M. 21. Diaby A. 11. Ariyibi G.
Substitutes
10. Antonisse J. 66. Batista G. 22. Caio (G) 23. Frimpong G. 19. Jorquera Romero J. 3. Michel 21. Santos P. 5. Tavares S. 99. Yan Maranhao	9. Bozenik R. 1. Cesar (G) 14. Kone M. 3. Kurzawa L. 5. Lystsov V. 73. Marques A. 24. Perez S. 10. Reisinho M. 16. Silva J.
Coaches
Bacci C.	Vidigal L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Agra S. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Alanzinho (Pen),
36', Bernardo 🟨,
36', Abascal R. 🟨,
36', Vitoria S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vukotic I. ↓, Reisinho M. ↑,
46', Ariyibi G. ↓, Kone M. ↑,
52', Camara I. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,
54', Agra S. 🟥,
58', Bernardo ↓, Antonisse J. ↑,
59', Marcelo 🟨,
60', Kewin 🟨,
65', Bozenik R. 🟨,
69', Ramos R. ↓, Tavares S. ↑,
70', Buta L. ↓, Frimpong G. ↑,
70', Vitoria S. ↓, Kurzawa L. ↑,
72', Kurzawa L. 🟨,
77', Reisinho M. 🟨,
81', Teguia C. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
81', Asue L. ↓, Jorquera Romero J. ↑,
82', Antonisse J. 🟨,
85', Diaby A. ↓, Perez S. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 1.

Recent matches Moreirense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Boavista is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Moreirense is a favorite.

There will not play in Moreirense: Frimpong G. (Injury) Guilherme Liberato (Knee Injury) Hernani Infande (Knee Injury) Rodrigues I. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Boavista: Dabo A. (Inactive) Joao Goncalves (Knee Injury) Kurzawa L. (Muscle Injury) Moraes Pires L. H. (Knee Injury) Ribeiro M. (Inactive) Silva T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Boavista: Ferreira F. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:6 (average 0.7:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Moreirense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
09.03.25	Santa Clara - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Famalicão - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	3:2 ✺
08.02.25	Benfica - Moreirense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTLWL
- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
09.03.25	Boavista - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
02.03.25	Boavista - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Benfica - Boavista	3:0 ✺
14.02.25	Boavista - Estrela da Amadora	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Estoril Praia - Boavista	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.10.24	Boavista - Moreirense	0:2
09.03.24	Boavista - Moreirense	1:0
06.10.23	Moreirense - Boavista	1:1
01.05.22	Moreirense - Boavista	1:2
19.12.21	Boavista - Moreirense	1:0
19.02.21	Boavista - Moreirense	1:0

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