Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 14

Date: 17 December 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Moreirense		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	5.75	Watch
	1.62	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.63	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.63	4.09	6
	1.62	4.07	6
	1.55	3.9	5.5	Watch
	1.61	4.05	5.4	Watch
	1.63	3.9	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.93)	3.92 ↑ (3.41)	5.6 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
58.9%

Draw
24.2%

Portimonense
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.1%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreirense's performance.

Portimonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Portimonense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portimonense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Moreirense - Portimonense Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Portimonense will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Kewin (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 44. Marcelo 18. Amador P. 80. Ofori L. 8. Wallisson 19. Camacho J. 11. Alan 31. Madson 9. Andre Luis (C)	12. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 25. Lucas Ventura 44. Pedrao 22. Relvas F. 27. Oliveira G. M. 11. Carlinhos (C) 13. Dener 18. Costa G. 77. Varela H. 9. Paulinho 7. Jasper S.
Substitutes
17. Antonisse J. 10. Aparicio P. 66. Batista G. 22. Caio (G) 23. Frimpong G. 21. Kodisang K. 7. Matheus Aias 14. Ponck 6. Ramos R.	76. Alcobia R. 20. Estrela P. 28. Luan 32. Nakamura K. (G) 37. Rildo 14. Seck M. 17. Silva do Nascimento D. 6. Sousa R. 99. Zinho
Coaches
Aguiar T.	Paulo Sergio

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 6 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 1.

Moreirense is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Portimonense is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Moreirense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Moreirense is a favorite.

There will not play in Moreirense: Franco G. (Yellow Cards) Sylla A. (Injury)

There will not play in Portimonense: Carrillo R. (Red Card) Tornich (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Hernani Infande (Injury)

There are questionable in Portimonense: Igor Formiga (Injury) Mauricio (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Moreirense to win the game is with odds 1.7.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Moreirense won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
11.12.23	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Moreirense - Benfica	0:0 ✺
11.11.23	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
05.11.23	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
27.10.23	Arouca - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 TTWWW
- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
09.12.23	Portimonense - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
02.12.23	Casa Pia - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Portimonense - Braga	1:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
11.11.23	Portimonense - Chaves	2:1 ✺
04.11.23	Braga - Portimonense	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.04.22	Portimonense - Moreirense	1:0
12.12.21	Moreirense - Portimonense	0:1
10.05.21	Portimonense - Moreirense	1:2
24.01.21	Moreirense - Portimonense	2:2
15.02.20	Portimonense - Moreirense	1:1
30.08.19	Moreirense - Portimonense	1:0
29.03.19	Portimonense - Moreirense	0:2

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