Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estrela da Amadora		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.82	2.65	Watch
	2.65	3	2.7
	2.92	2.82	2.68	Watch
	2.72	3.13	2.85
	2.92	2.91	2.72	Watch
	2.8	2.88	2.7	Watch
	2.97	3	2.78	Watch
	3	2.8	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.5)	2.92 ↓ (3.19)	2.72 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
33%

Draw
32.3%

Moreirense
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

30.4%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

31.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estrela da Amadora's form might have worsened.

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Moreirense will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 3 - 60%). Moreirense (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 17. Encada J. 14. Bernardo Schappo 30. Luan Patrick 55. Cabral S. 19. Moreira P. 6. Ngom O. 63. Sola A. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 11. Jovane	13. Ferreira A. (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 66. Batista G. 27. Kiko 20. Bernardo 8. Stjepanovic M. 11. Alanzinho 2. Travassos 95. Guilherme Schettine (C) 78. Landerson
Substitutes
7. Antonetti L. 79. Chernev A. 18. Meireles J. 21. Montoia G. 83. Otavio 1. Pinto D. (G) 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho 10. Stoica I.	25. Assis A. 22. Caio (G) 30. Gower J. 44. Marcelo 17. Martinez A. 3. Michel 21. Rodri 9. Semedo L. 7. Teguia C.
Coaches
Silva L.	Costa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Pinto D. 🟨,
35', Cabral S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sola A. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
57', Guilherme Schettine ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
57', Bernardo ↓, Rodri ↑,
57', Landerson ↓, Kiko Bondoso ↑,
67', Moreira P. 🟨,
72', Kikas ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
72', Encada J. ↓, Otavio ↑,
80', Jovane ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
84', Travassos ↓, Teguia C. ↑,
84', Cabral S. ↓, Chernev A. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Estrela: Alisson Souza (Inactive) Montoia G. (Inactive) Ni (Injury)

There will not play in Moreirense: Jorquera Romero J. (Ankle Injury) Yan Maranhao (Injury)

There are questionable in Estrela: Cabral S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Sousa V. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 38.76%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.11.25	Valladolid - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLTT
- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
29.11.25	Moreirense - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Braga - Moreirense	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.03.25	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	1:1
28.09.24	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	2:1
07.04.24	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2
11.11.23	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	0:1
Portuguese Liga 2
06.05.23	Estrela da Amadora - Moreirense	2:4
31.12.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
27.11.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	4:2

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