Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 3

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	TVI


	Moreirense		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.45
	3	3.1	2.37
	2.98	3.05	2.48
	3.12	3.15	2.54
	2.99	3.16	2.42	Watch
	3	3	2.38
	3	3.14	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.78)	3.11 ↓ (3.28)	2.45 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
31.4%

Draw
30.2%

Vitoria Guimarães
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

29%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

30.5%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreirense's performance.

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	53.8%	0%

Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Moreirense (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caio (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 44. Marcelo (C) 27. Kiko 8. Stjepanovic M. 80. Ofori L. 7. Teguia C. 11. Alanzinho 10. Kiko Bondoso 95. Guilherme Schettine	27. Charles Silva (G) 2. Maga 3. Nobrega M. 26. Abascal R. 21. Felix V. 10. Tiago Silva 8. Handel T. (C) 13. Mendes J. II. 77. Santos N. 7. Oliveira N. 11. Gustavo
Substitutes
25. Assis A. 66. Batista G. 13. Ferreira A. (G) 30. Gower J. 19. Jorquera Romero J. 78. Landerson 17. Martinez A. 16. Mika (G) 99. Yan Maranhao	18. Arcanjo T. 16. Beni 22. Blanco F. 19. Camara O. 25. Castillo J. (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 6. Mitrovic M. 90. Ndoye A. 5. Paulo Vitor
Coaches
Costa V.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Mendes J. II. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ofori L. ↓, Assis A. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Guilherme Schettine ⚽, Alanzinho (A),
49', 2 - 0, Guilherme Schettine ⚽, Kiko Bondoso (A),
57', Maga ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
57', Santos N. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
63', Assis A. 🟨,
65', Oliveira N. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
68', Maracas 🟨,
70', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Landerson ↑,
70', Guilherme Schettine ↓, Yan Maranhao ↑,
74', Felix V. 🟨,
77', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
77', Tiago Silva ↓, Beni ↑,
80', Kiko ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
80', Maracas ↓, Batista G. ↑,
83', Caio 🟨,
87', Pinto D. 🟨,
90', Batista G. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 1.

Moreirense has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Guimarães has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Moreirense has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Moreirense: Guilherme Liberato (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Injury) Samu (Injury) Thiago Balieiro (Inactive)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel (Inactive)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Nobrega M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Liga Portugal
17.08.25	Santa Clara - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	Moreirense - Alverca	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Moreirense - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Moreirense - Chaves	0:0 ✺
19.07.25	Moreirense - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWTW
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
16.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
11.08.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1 ✺
01.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Celta de Vigo	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.03.25	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2
03.11.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0
30.03.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:0
05.11.23	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
03.04.22	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
Taça de Portugal
21.11.21	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2
Liga Portugal
06.11.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	2:1

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